XRP is struggling to push above current levels. The market is uncertain. And on Binance, the supply of XRP available for sale has not recovered — even after months of price weakness that should have brought sellers back.
A CryptoQuant report tracking Binance’s XRP supply structure identified a situation in direct contrast to what typically happens during prolonged price declines: the reserve has not been rebuilt. The reserve value of XRP on Binance is currently around $3.6 billion, while cumulative net flows remain very negative at -$11.4 billion. Together, these two numbers describe a market in which coins left the exchange and remained untouched, never returning to the sell side despite all price-based incentives to do so.
These are the details worth stopping at. When prices fall significantly from their highs, the exchange supply usually expands. Owners who bought at a higher price are selling back. Rebuild liquidity. Book packaging. None of that happened here. The ongoing negative net flow structure on Binance indicates something more permanent than a temporary withdrawal – a large-scale withdrawal process Sustainable migration XRP is off-exchange and in private custody.
XRP is experiencing difficulties at current levels. And the supply available to push it down is quietly running out.
A thin book does not guarantee height
the Report The market structure argument is nuanced and deserves to be stated in full. When exchange reserves are squeezed — when the supply of immediately available XRP on Binance shrinks — the venue’s ability to absorb buy order without moving the price diminishes proportionately. A thinner book means that smaller inflows can produce larger price movements. The market becomes more reactive, not because sentiment has changed, but because the supply barrier that would normally moderate price fluctuations has been removed.
When this situation exists alongside very negative cumulative net inflows – as is the case now, with $11.4 billion in net outflows without any real rebuilding – the picture becomes structural rather than cyclical. Withdrawals consistently outpaced inflows over the entire measurement period. This is not a short-term anomaly. It is a sustained trend behavior that has compressed Binance’s XRP supply to a level unlike the periods of neutral market structure that preceded previous price recoveries.
The report is careful to specify what this means and what it does not mean. Structural distress is a condition, not a motivator. It does not cause movement. It inflates one when the trigger hits.
With reserves of $3.6 billion and cumulative net inflows of -$11.4 billion, the XRP supply environment on Binance has not returned to normal. I tightened – and stayed tight. The market that existed before the withdrawal was a different market. This has less XRP to sell, less buffer to absorb demand, and less room for the price to remain indifferent to the change in buying pressure.
XRP stabilizes after crash, but structure remains weak
XRP is trading around the $1.35 level after a sharp collapse in February that shifted the market structure decisively to the downside. The chart shows a clear loss of trend, with the price falling below all the major moving averages and failing to recover them during subsequent recovery attempts.
Since the capitulation move, XRP has entered a narrow consolidation range of approximately $1.25 to $1.50. This range reflects temporary balance, but not strength. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages are trending lower above the price, acting as dynamic resistance and reinforcing the lack of upward momentum. The 200-day moving average remains significantly higher, confirming that the broader downtrend remains in place.
Related reading: Inflows from Binance indicate that money is starting to return to cryptocurrencies – find out what has changed
The volume provides additional context. A rally during the February sell-off indicates forced liquidation or strong distribution, while subdued volume during the current consolidation indicates limited demand. Buyers are present, but they do not have enough conviction to reverse the trend.
Importantly, XRP continues to post lower highs even within this range, indicating continued selling pressure on the highs. Until the price reclaims the major moving averages and breaks the $1.50 resistance level strongly, the current structure favors a continuation or extended consolidation rather than a confirmed recovery.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
