The USD/JPY pair remained consolidating below 160.45, the short-term high last week, and the outlook remained unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral first and further upside is expected with cluster support at 157.49 (38.2% retracement level from 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) remaining intact. On the upside, a break at 160.45 will target a retest of the high price of 161.94. However, a strong break of the 157.31/49 area would bring a deeper pullback to the 61.8% retracement levels at 155.38 next.
In the bigger picture, the outlook is unchanged as the corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should be completed in three waves at 139.87. The larger uptrend from 102.58 (2021 low) may be ready to resume via 161.94. This will remain the preferred case as long as the 55 W moving average (now at 155.24) remains. A strong break of 161.94 will pave the way for a 61.8% forecast of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.
In the longer term picture, the uptrend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and may be ready to resume. A strong break at 161.94 would target a 61.8% forecast of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. The long-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the support at 139.87 holds, even in the event of a deep pullback.
