The upward trajectory of fuel prices, driven by rising tensions in the Middle East, reversed sharply on April 8 after reports of a two-week ceasefire. After a long period of gains, global fuel indices have entered a corrective phase, reflecting a shift in market sentiment. The 380 HSFO index fell by US$18.17, falling from US$801.67 per metric ton last week to US$783.50 per metric ton, moving back under the US$800 threshold. VLSFO also decreased by US$18.18, from US$940.04 per ton to US$922.86 per ton. Meanwhile, the MGO LS index registered a more pronounced decline of US$42.14, falling from US$1,635.44 per metric ton to US$1,593.30 per metric ton, similarly falling below the US$1,600 mark. At the time of writing, the global fuel market remains under downward pressure, with corrective dynamics continuing to dominate price movements.
The MABUX Global Scrubber (SS) spread – the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – rose marginally by $0.99, rising from $138.37 last week to $139.36, and remaining well above the psychological break-even threshold of $100.00. However, the index’s weekly average fell by $9.95, indicating weak underlying momentum. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread remained unchanged at US$40.00, although it briefly contracted to US$22.00 during this period. The weekly average port spread also fell by $12.67, reflecting a weak trend. In Singapore, the SS index contracted significantly, falling US$27.00 from US$162.00 last week to US$135.00, with a period low of US$131.00. The average weekly port spread also decreased by $28.00. The corrective movements observed in the fuel market are likely to exert further downward pressure on the SS Spread. We expect the gap to continue narrowing over the next week. For additional details, see the “Differences” section mabox.com.
Istanbul (ES) ECA margin remained unchanged during the week at US$100.00, despite peaking at US$150.00 amid heightened market volatility. The weekly average fell by $10.00, indicating a partial easing of bullish pressure. The ECA spread in Venice remains temporarily suspended due to the lack of fixed prices in the market. Amid the continued easing of tensions in the Middle East, ECA spread is expected to remain near current levels in the short term. More details are available in the ‘Differences’ section mabox.com.
The ongoing military confrontation in the Middle East continues to put upward pressure on the EU gas market. A large share of European gas imports comes from Persian Gulf producers, especially Qatar. However, supply flows have been disrupted by Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure, with concerns growing that volumes may not fully recover even if escalation de-escalates in the near term. At the same time, tightening inventory levels are increasing the sensitivity of European and Asian markets to weather-related demand fluctuations and unplanned power outages. The spot market is also showing signs of declining liquidity, as market participants increasingly shift towards the relative safety of longer-term contractual arrangements.
As of April 7, the level of natural gas in European underground storage facilities registered a marginal increase for the first time since the beginning of the year, reaching 28.61% of total capacity (+0.56 percentage points on a weekly basis). Despite this increase, storage levels remain significantly lower – by 32.85% – compared to the level recorded on January 1, 2026 (61.46%). At the end of week 15, the European Gas Index TTF registered a significant increase, rising by EUR 3.547/MWh to EUR 53.247/MWh, compared to EUR 49.700/MWh in the previous week, thus returning above the threshold of EUR 50.00/MWh.
The price of LNG as a bunker at the port of Sense (Portugal) fell by US$163.00 this week, falling to US$1,149 per metric ton from US$1,312 per metric ton the previous week. At the same time, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel continued to widen significantly, reaching US$476 in favor of LNG (compared to US$195 the previous week). As of April 6, the MGO LS price was set at US$1,625/mt at the Port of Sines. More detailed information is available in the “LNG Bunkering” section mabox.com.
Amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) – which reflects the ratio between Market Fuel Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Fuel Benchmark (DBP) – showed a clear shift in valuation dynamics across the world’s largest hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah and Houston:
• HSFO Section 380: Fujairah and Houston are back in the undervalued zone, resulting in all four ports being assessed as undervalued. Discount levels expanded by 36 points in Rotterdam, 53 points in Fujairah, and 143 points in Houston, while Singapore recorded a marginal contraction of 7 points. It is worth noting that MDIs in Fujairah approached complete association (100%) between MBP and DBP.
• VLSFO sector: Fujairah and Houston have similarly turned into an undervalued area, joining Rotterdam and Singapore. The MDI discount rose in all outlets: 52 points in Rotterdam, 29 points in Singapore, 53 points in Fujairah, and 116 points in Houston. The MDI in Houston also approached full correlation (100%) between MBP and DBP.
• MGO LS sector: Rotterdam returns to undervalued territory, becoming the only port in this category to be assessed as undervalued, with the average discount widening by 116 points. The remaining three ports were overvalued. However, overvaluation levels decreased by 69 points in Singapore and 89 points in Fujairah, while Houston recorded an increase of 15 points.
Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, the dynamics of MDI devices have increasingly shifted towards undervaluation, particularly in the 380 HSFO and VLSFO sectors. We expect this trend of bunker fuel depreciation to continue over the next week. More detailed insights into the relationship between market prices and the digital MABUX benchmark are available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section at mabox.com.
DNV recorded five new orders for alternative fuel vessels in March, a notable decline from 17 orders in February, reflecting a slowdown in contracting activity. LNG and LPG each received two orders, while methanol received one order. The global LNG fleet continues to expand, reaching 921 ships in operation, with a large order book of 673 ships scheduled for delivery through 2033. LNG is showing steady momentum as a bunker fuel, with new orders recorded for the third straight month in 2026. A total of eight LPG-capable ships have been ordered so far, still lagging the 32 LNG orders but exceeding 2 Methanol. According to DNV, the LPG sector currently includes 150 ships in operation and 90 ships on order for delivery until 2028. Methanol is also showing gradual growth. The operational fleet rose to 123 vessels in March, compared to 118 in February, indicating five new deliveries during the month. The methanol order book remains significant, with 325 vessels scheduled to be delivered until 2030. DNV data also indicates that 60 replacement vessels capable of using the fuel were delivered in the first quarter of 2026, including 27 LNG-powered units and 17 methanol-capable units, confirming continued fleet expansion despite declining order activity. In contrast, ammonia remains largely inactive. No new ships capable of producing ammonia were ordered in March, the third consecutive month without new contracts. This sector is still at an early stage of development, with only three ships currently in operation and 42 ships on order for delivery by 2029.
A two-week ceasefire agreement reached on April 8 in the Middle East conflict zone has reversed the downward trend in the global fuel market. We expect basement indicators to resume their decline in the near term, provided that all parties adhere to the agreed upon conditions. Conversely, any violation of the ceasefire could lead to renewed upward movement in prices.
Source: Written by Sergey Ivanov, Director of MABUX
