TThe current situation in tanker markets may lead to long-term disruption with unknown variables. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Exclusive said, “Last week confirmed that the turmoil in the Persian Gulf is no longer just a supply shock, but rather a market distortion that has begun to erode demand itself. What initially supported shipping through panic, dislocation, and risk premiums is now evolving into something more complex: a shrinking shipping base, detained tonnage, and an increasingly fragmented tanker market.”
Source: Exclusive
According to Xclusiv, “On the oil side, the numbers are becoming harder to ignore. With weekly volumes from the Middle East and Gulf region down by up to 65% and an estimated 100 tankers (>20,000 DWT) unable to exit the region (based on Signal Ocean Data), the market is effectively dealing with a logistical bottleneck rather than an outright shortage. The immediate reaction earlier this month – with reports of tight preparations at record levels – reflects fear and scarcity. With However, as the days go by and without the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the reality is shifting towards days of lost profits, idle capacity, and growing uncertainty about future employment. This explains why future forecasts are already adjusting despite major fluctuations. At the same time, policy responses are becoming increasingly unconventional, and the US is now considering temporarily releasing up to 140 million barrels of Iranian oil already in the waters, following a similar move on Russian shipments. While this may lead to lower prices in the near term, it also introduces a new layer of uncertainty Unpredictability, effectively blurring the boundaries of sanctioned trade and distorting normal market signals But perhaps more telling is what is happening in the clean tanker space Unlike crude oil, where dislocation can support tons of miles, product tankers face a direct hit to demand With Gulf refineries in the Middle East damaged or unable to export, about 3.46 million barrels per day of product flows have been effectively removed from the market. The replacement volumes seen elsewhere – nearly 1 million barrels per day – are not enough To compensate.
The result is not a change in course but rather a contraction. This is already evident in the ship’s behaviour. LR and MR units are increasingly pulling their weight west, abandoning traditional employment east of Suez in search of alternative shipments. While this initially supported Atlantic profits, it now created conditions for increased supply in the West. The early signs are there: interest rates remain historically strong, but momentum has clearly eased, particularly in the Pacific region where earnings have corrected sharply from their peak.
“Added to all this is the sharp increase in fuel costs, which acts as an additional constraint on fleet movement,” Exclusive said. “As fuel prices rise and availability tightens, speculative repositioning becomes more expensive, effectively slowing down the system and reducing flexibility. This, coupled with the growing imbalance between laden and ballast vessels within the Gulf, creates a market that is not only turbulent, but also inefficient.”
Source: Exclusive
“Looking back, the broader picture is one of a system under pressure. The tanker market was already entering this period with an aging fleet and limited immediate replacement capacity, a structural problem still in the background. What the current crisis has done is reveal how quickly utilization can collapse when a major choke point is removed from the equation. For now, the market remains strong but fundamentally fragile. The longer the Hormuz remains effectively closed, the more the talk will shift from rising freight to demand destruction and utilization losses,” the shipbroker concluded. It’s no longer just a supply crunch — it’s a test of how much disruption the tanker market can absorb before its fundamentals start to weaken.
Nikos Rousanoglou, Global Hellenic Shipping News
