Major stock markets witnessed sharp declines. Binance, for example, has lost $25 billion in trading volume since March.
Bitcoin struggled to surpass $80,000 despite multiple attempts. Interestingly, spot trading volumes have fallen to their lowest levels since the end of the previous bear market and are back to levels last seen in September 2023.
The decline continued throughout April, indicating a clear slowdown in activity and a sharp decline in overall market participation, according to the latest findings by analyst Darkvost.
Traders moving away?
The decline is evident in the major stock exchanges. Since March, Binance, which still has the lion’s share of trading activity, has done just that registered A decrease of about $25 billion in volumes within a month. This trend extends beyond a single platform. For example, Gate.io saw trading volumes cut in half, representing a $13 billion decrease. On the other hand, OKX recorded a decline of about $6 billion.
The contraction comes against a difficult macroeconomic backdrop that continues to affect sentiment. The ongoing developments surrounding the conflict with Iran did not provide clarity, while concerns about continued inflation were reinforced.
In this context, the Fed is seen as having limited space to accelerate monetary easing at the current FOMC meeting.
As a result, Darkvost reported that investors remain hesitant to build long-term immediate exposure, reflecting a lack of conviction in the medium-term outlook. While lower volumes indicate weaker short-term momentum and lower interest, a return to bearish market activity levels is also often where “new opportunities begin to emerge.”
Bullish outlook
Another cryptographer, Ali Martinez, It has been marked Signs of a potential turnaround on the BTC monthly chart, highlighted by the formation of a “morning star” pattern. He explained that this setting indicates a move from fear to uncertainty and then towards stronger buying pressure.
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Similar patterns have emerged three times over the past few years, each followed by notable gains, including a 34% surge in 2023, a sharp 212% surge in early 2024, and another surge of closer to 34% later that year. According to him, as long as Bitcoin remains above the $73,000 level, the broader trend continues to tilt upward.
The idea of opportunity is echoed in increasingly optimistic forecasts. Maelstrom CIO and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently anticipation Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the end of the year as rising wartime spending boosts global liquidity.
Speaking at Bitcoin Vegas 2026, he explained that higher defense budgets, increased borrowing, and monetary expansion are changing conditions in favor of assets. AI-induced credit contractions and changes in banking regulations could inject significant liquidity into the system, thus outweighing economic pressures, Hayes added.
Despite ongoing tensions such as the US-Iran conflict, he said markets remain focused on liquidity trends rather than panic.
