- Federal Reserve Funds futures set a 100% no-change outcome for the April 29 FOMC meeting.
- US Bitcoin ETFs recorded $89.68 million in daily net outflows.
- Ethereum ETFs also remained negative, with daily net outflows of $21.80 million.
Federal Reserve Fund Rate Expectations entered the session without any political surprise. Bitcoin ETFs continue to record larger outflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. Ethereum ETFs also remained in negative flow territory, despite gains across listed products. The data placed cryptocurrency markets between flat macro pricing and weaker demand for ETFs.
FedWatch Prices Hold 100% as Bitcoin Faces Post FOMC Test
Federal Reserve funds futures are fully priced on April 29, 2026 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The target range remained at 350 to 375 basis points across the latest reading. Traders assigned a 100% probability of no change, with 0% for ease and 0% for interest rates to rise. The contract used for the meeting is ZQJ6, expiring on April 30, 2026. It had an average price of 96.3588, a previous volume of 6.411, and a previous open interest of 422.968.
The one-day and one-week readings also put the odds of no change at 100%. One month ago, the same range carried a 95.9% probability. The upper range of 375 to 400 basis points gained 4.1% one month ago, then fell to zero. The move removed the remaining prices to increase before the meeting. Therefore, the current rate range becomes the only priced result.
This setup gives Bitcoin traders a more visible macro event than recent FOMC meetings. Preliminary Phemex data found that BTC fell within 48 hours after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings. These declines occurred regardless of the political decision. Today’s pricing creates a different backdrop because futures removed price uncertainty before the announcement. Markets entered the meeting without a priced path for a rate hike or cut.
Therefore, Bitcoin’s next move depends less on the interest rate decision and more on the Fed’s message. The fixed-rate result is already fully embedded in futures prices. Any market reaction could shift towards guidance, inflation language and risk appetite after the statement. Cryptocurrency markets often react quickly when traders adjust leverage following central bank events. With odds of no change at 100%, BTC faces a positioning test rather than a price surprise.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs See $89.68M Outflow as IBIT Leads Trading Volume
According to the latest update by SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs in the US It recorded a total daily net flow of $89.68 million on April 28. The total value traded amounted to $1.35 billion, while the total net assets amounted to $100.39 billion. This asset base represents 6.56% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization. BlackRock’s IBIT led the activity with a trading value of $1.03 billion. However, the fund recorded the largest daily outflow of $112.25 million. IBIT has net assets of $61.76 billion and controls 4.03% of Bitcoin supply exposure. The market price closed at $43.27, down 0.67% on the day.
Fidelity’s FBTC also recorded outflows, with $4.98 million leaving the fund. FBTC traded worth $144.83 million and held net assets of $14.16 billion. The fund’s market price fell 0.70% to $66.48. Its stake in Bitcoin was 0.93%, making it the second largest producer in terms of net assets. Bitwise’s BITB added to the negative daily flow with $13.65 million in outflows. The fund traded at $30.98 million and holds net assets of $2.90 billion. The market price fell by 0.72% to $41.45. BITB took a 0.20% fee and owns a 0.19% Bitcoin stake.
Ark 21Shares’ ARKB moved against the broader daily flow trend. The fund recorded net inflows of $41.20 million on April 28. ARKB traded at $24.49 million and held net assets of $2.86 billion. The market price fell 0.76% to $25.32, which corresponds to a weakness in the broader price. Grayscale’s GBTC reported zero daily net inflow and zero Bitcoin inflow. The fund still maintains net assets of $11.53 billion. GBTC was traded at $72.93 million, while the market price fell 0.72% to $59.34. Its 1.50% fee remained the highest among the listed products.
Grayscale’s BTC producer also reported no daily inflow. It had $4.05 billion in net assets and traded $28.31 million. The market price fell by 0.68% to $33.77. The fund carries a fee of 0.15% and a Bitcoin stake of 0.26%. Many small products recorded no net daily flow. VanEck’s HODL, Invesco’s BTCO, Valkyrie’s BRRR, Franklin’s EZBC, and WisdomTree’s BTCW all showed zero inflows. Their market prices decreased by between 0.66% and 0.72%. The session ended with broad losses in ETF prices and concentrated daily outflows from IBIT and BITB.
What about Ethereum ETFs?
While Bitcoin reported an outflow, Ethereum ETFs It remained in the red as it recorded a total daily net flow of $21.80 million. The total trading value reached $428.61 million across the products listed during the session. Total net assets reached $13.57 billion after the update. This asset base is equivalent to 4.90% of Ethereum’s market capitalization. BlackRock’s ETHA led the trading activity with a trading value of $325.83 million. The fund recorded its largest daily outflow, with $13.17 million of product leaving.
ETHA held net assets of $7.26 billion at closing. The market price rose 0.58% to $17.37 despite the outflow. Grayscale’s ETH producer reported no daily net inflow. It had $2.09 billion in net assets and traded $25.60 million. The market price rose 0.55% to $21.84. Its fee was 0.15%, lower than Grayscale’s ETHE fee.
Grayscale’s ETHE recorded a daily outflow of $6.91 million. The fund maintains net assets of $1.88 billion and trades at $22.72 million. The market price of ETHE rose 0.54% to $18.69. Its 2.50% fee remains the highest among listed Ethereum products. Fidelity’s FETH added another $1.72 million to daily outflows. The fund traded at $18.11 million and held net assets of $1.29 billion. Its market price increased by 0.53% to reach $22.93. FETH carries a fee of 0.25% during the session.
Many smaller Ethereum ETFs have not recorded any daily net inflow. ETHB from BlackRock, ETHW from Bitwise, ETHV from VanEck, EZET from Franklin, QETH from Invesco, and TETH from 21Shares all showed zero inflows. Their market prices continued to rise throughout the session. Daily gains ranged from 0.44% to 0.69%. Bitwise’s ETHW traded at $8.73 million and held net assets of $242.75 million. VanEck’s ETHV traded at $724,470 and held $116.62 million. Franklin’s EZET stock traded at $441,460 and held $46.11 million. Invesco’s QETH stock traded at $75,340 and held $21.83 million.
