TThe dry bulk market has recently been witnessing a redrawing of the global shipping map. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal said: “The corn market in 2026 is characterized by well-supply conditions, due to strong harvests across the Americas and high US inventories. While this pricing environment is boosting consumption, it is putting pressure on producers’ margins. At the same time, pressures on the cost side are increasing. Fertilizer markets have come under pressure amid disruptions in trade flows from the Middle East, a major export hub for nitrogen-based products, with the Food and Agriculture Organization noting that the Fertilizer prices could rise by up to 20% on average in the first half of 2026, if the crisis continues, and this leads to uncertainty about future corn cultivation, as persistently high input costs could stimulate a shift from fertilizer-intensive crops such as corn towards alternatives such as soybeans in the coming cycles.
Source: Multimedia
According to Mr. Nikos Tagolis, Senior Analyst at Intermodal, “At the same time, an increasing share of domestic production in the major exporting countries, the United States and Brazil, is being absorbed domestically, primarily through the expansion of ethanol production, supported by rising oil prices, which is limiting the pace of export volumes. In the United States, corn accounts for most of the ethanol production, according to the EIA, while policy in favor of higher blending rates with gasoline continues to support demand for biofuels. This dynamic creates room for alternative exporters to expand their share in the market and expand the base of their importing partners.
“Within this landscape, Argentina is expanding its footprint in the seaborne corn export market,” the shipbroker said. The Rosario Board of Trade estimates the record corn crop for 2025/26 at 62 million metric tons, 9.5 million tons higher than the previous record set in 2023/24, confirming the remarkable expansion in production of the world’s third-largest corn exporter. Moreover, a notable development is the reopening of corn trade with China, with the first large shipment volume from the Tempoise terminal, signaling a resumption of flows after more than a decade of phytosanitary restrictions. This is in line with China’s broader food security strategy, which emphasizes diversifying supply sources and building precautionary stocks in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment.
“Along with the reopening of trade with China, Argentina’s maize export momentum strengthened in March, with shipments to long-haul destinations across North Africa, the Middle East and Asia rising. According to LSEG data, exports to North Africa almost tripled year-on-year, while shipments to Saudi Arabia and Vietnam increased by 124% and 77%, respectively. However, operationally, there are constraints affecting efficiency. A significant share of the grain is loaded along the Paraná River. (Ports “Upstream”), where tow restrictions often prevent ships from sailing fully loaded during periods of drought or low river levels, the reduced depth of navigation restricts the amount of cargo that can be loaded upstream, requiring ships to depart partially loaded and load fully at deeper water points downstream or offshore and as a result, export efficiency is reduced, increasing the complexity of the voyage and often requiring additional logistical steps to complete the cargo.
Meanwhile, “on the demand side of the corn market, consumption remains healthy, with animal feed use rising alongside increased demand for meat in developing economies, driven by urbanization and growth in disposable income. At the same time, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are contributing to more precautionary buying behavior among major importers, including China, where food security considerations continue to shape import strategy.”
Source: Multimedia
“Argentina’s growing role in long-haul maize trade is contributing positively to the dry bulk market, enhancing Atlantic Basin dynamics with strong flows to North Africa and the Middle East, coupled with potential upside from the reopening of trade with China. The Panamax and Kamsarmax sectors are expected to benefit the most, while smaller sectors are also expected to see higher activity, with a greater contribution from regional freight movements. Overall, Argentina’s strengthening position in the maize export market is expected to redirect flows Trade at a Time to Support Demand Among other factors, growing concerns about food security amid geopolitical uncertainty While rising input costs pose downside risks to future harvests and may ultimately constrain exportable surpluses, current conditions continue to strengthen seaborne trade, and this translates into more diversified trade patterns and the potential for increased tonnage demand, primarily benefiting medium-sized bulk sectors.
Nikos Rousanoglou, Global Hellenic Shipping News
