Bitcoin’s rebound above $80,000 has done something of sorts Return confidence to Cryptocurrency market, but one cryptocurrency expert warns that the timing of the rebound may be more dangerous than it seems. As the expert, who goes by the name Crypto Patel on
Bitcoin repeats mid-term annual pattern
Bitcoin has crossed the $80,000 mark, pushing Coinmarketcap’s Fear and Greed Index to high neutral numbers. This step helped Stronger ETF flows April and May, but Bitcoin is still 35.5% below its peak in October 2025. All of these factors indicate that Bitcoin’s May price movement has begun With a positive note. However, according to notes noted by Crypto Patel on social media platform
Related reading
The expert pointed to previous May price movements in previous years as examples of this mid-term weakness. The chart he published alongside the post indicated four distinct bear markets, each depicted by a decline from peak to trough.
In 2014, Bitcoin peaked in May and subsequently declined by 76.04%. In 2018, another peak in May was preceded by a 68.35% collapse. In 2022, the same seasonal window in May led to a 70.06% collapse in prices. The pattern is precise: three midterms, three May peaks, and three catastrophic declines. “Three for three” Patel Crypto Books. “Not a coincidence. Course mechanics.”
The chart then projects a similar structure in 2026, the mid-term year, showing another potential decline of 66.54% from the current price.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoPatel on X
Trap relief pool
According to these forecasts, Bitcoin price is now at a similar inflection point, right where previous cycles began their more damaging legs. Applying the mean pullback structure from previous mid-term cycles to the current price action, Crypto Patel predicted a bottom zone between $50,000 and $30,000.
Related reading
The difficult part of Patel’s forecast is the current structure of the Bitcoin market Not quite bearish. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $81,530 and is now on the verge of breaking above the 200-day EMA of around $83,000.
Bitcoin has spent the past eight weeks consolidating in the $60,000 to $72,000 range. Before her final recovery. A large portion of the market interpreted this recovery as confirmation that the bottom had been established The worst is over. However, the cryptocurrency expert’s post directly addresses this sentiment as a potential trap. “The decline has occurred. Wrong. This is the trap,” he said.
Many analysts also noted that the four-year half cycle indicates a current downtrend The market may extend into the fourth quarter Before forming a solid bottom.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
