Key takeaways
- Global risk appetite has risen on the back of hopes for peace between the United States and Iran: Reports of a possible peace memorandum between the US and Iran led to a sharp rise in global stocks and a sharp fall in oil prices, easing inflation fears and boosting sentiment across risk assets.
- Technology and semiconductors led to record highs in stocks: The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and several Asian indices hit new highs, led by strong momentum in semiconductor stocks following upbeat earnings and AI-related partnership developments involving Intel and AMD.
- The US dollar weakened while gold and the Japanese yen roseThe US dollar fell broadly as geopolitical risk premiums eased, sending gold up 3%+ above $4,700 and renewed JPY strength amid suspected interference and bearish technical signals on USD/JPY.
- Today’s chart: USD/JPY It has further downside pressure potential below the 157.30/157.55 key short-term resistance area. Next intermediate supports are at 154.65 and 154.05.
Most important macro addresses
- Hopes for the US-Iranian peace agreement: Oil prices fell and global stocks rose after news that the United States and Iran were close to reaching a memorandum to end the conflict, with the United States ending its offensive operations.
- US stocks hit record highs: Bloomberg data highlights that the S&P 500 closed at a record high of 7,259.22. The rise was largely driven by the semiconductor sector, with Intel shares jumping 13% following Apple partnership reports and AMD shares rising 16.5% after hours.
- Gold rises above $4,700: The spot price of gold rose more than 3% to $4,703 an ounce, hitting its highest level in several weeks, as peace prospects dragged down the US dollar and changed safe-haven dynamics.
- Continuing yen fluctuations: The Japanese yen rose 1.8% to around 155.00 against the US dollar on Wednesday, May 8, during the Asian session due to suspected “covert interference.”
- US ADP hiring exceeds expectations: Private sector payrolls rose by 109,000 in April, beating expectations of 99,000, indicating continued labor market tightness that is complicating the path to federal easing.
Main college topics
- Geopolitical de-escalation and energy relief: The potential resolution of the conflict in the Middle East is rapidly withdrawing the extreme risk premium from energy markets. The decline of WTI towards $100 per barrel provides immediate relief to global inflation expectations.
- Semiconductor AI supercycle: The technology sector continues to be disconnected from broader macro concerns. Exceptional earnings and strategic partnerships (eg Intel/Apple) are solidifying semiconductors as a key growth driver for global stocks.
- Dollar weakness and gold redistribution: The sudden decline in the US dollar (driven by hopes of peace) led to a large intraday capital shift into gold, which rose almost 3% as a preferred alternative asset.
Impact of global markets (last 24 hours)
- Stock: The S&P 500 (+1.5% to 7,365), Nasdaq 100 (+2.1% to 28,599), and Russell 2000 (+1.5% to 2,886) closed at record levels. The DJIA lagged (+1.2% to 49,910). In Europe, the DAX rose 2.1% to 24,918.
- Fixed income: The 30-year US Treasury yield fell below 5% (to 4.98%) as investors stabilized interest rates. The 10-year bond yield remains steady at 4.4%.
- foreign currency: The US dollar fell broadly on news of peace between the US and Iran. AUD/USD rose to 0.7238, closing at a 4-year high amid optimistic risk appetite.
- Goods: West Texas Intermediate crude fell towards $90.50 per barrel due to developments between the United States and Iran. The spot price of gold rose 3.2% to $4,703 per ounce, its highest level since late April.
Asia-Pacific influence
- Stock markets: The 4.5% overnight jump in the US SOX Semiconductor Index triggered a positive feedback loop back into major Asian stock markets. Nikkei 225 (+5.4% to 62,720 to hit all-time high), KOSPI (+0.2% to push to new record high of 7,400), Hang Seng (+1.3% to 26,564), China A50 (+0.2% to 15,850 to hit 52-month high), STI (+0.3% to 26,564). 4,944) at the time of writing.
- Currencies: The Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed all its regional counterparts following a rally in global stock markets. The Japanese Yen (JPY) managed to find a floor at around 157.30/157.55 per US dollar amid fears of further intervention,
- Economic forecasts: The region is expected to benefit greatly from lower energy import costs. If the Middle East peace agreement is implemented, it will provide a major economic boost to major oil importers such as Japan and South Korea.
The two most important events to watch today
- Initial unemployment claims in the United States – 8.30pm Singapore time: (Consensus: 205k, previous week: 189k)Impact: US dollar, US stock indices, short-term US Treasuries
- Retail sales in the euro area – 5.00pm Singapore time: (Consensus: -0.3% mo/m, February: -0.2% mo/m) Impact: EUR, DAX pairs
- Ongoing developments in the US-Iran peace memorandum Impact: All asset classes
Today’s Chart – More downward pressure for USD/JPY below 157.30/157.55
Figure 1: Secondary trend of USD/JPY as of May 7, 2026 (Source: TradingView)
The USD/JPY pair saw a bearish breakdown below a simple “rising wedge” formation on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Additionally, in the opening Asian session today (Thursday, May 7, 2026), the hourly RSI momentum indicator showed a bearish momentum condition below the 50 level.
These observations indicate that the slight downtrend phase for USD/JPY is still intact. a witness 157.30/157.55 is a major short-term pivot resistance For another potential downside leg to expose the next intermediate support at 154.65 and 154.05 (Also the main 200-day moving average) (See Figure 1).
However, a breakout and hourly close above 157.55 negates the downside of a bounce towards the next intermediate resistance at 158.10 and 158.60 (cross of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages).
