The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.7277 last week as the uptrend continued, but has since retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further rise is expected as long as the support at 0.7101 remains stable. Above 0.7277 will target 61.8% from 0.6420 to 0.7187 from 0.6832 at 0.7306.
In the bigger picture, a rally from 0.5913 (2024 low) is still in progress. A decisive break of the 61.8% retracement levels from 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will strengthen the case that it is indeed reversing the downtrend from 0.8006 (2021 high). We should then see further upside to retest the 0.8006 level. For now, the outlook will remain bullish as long as the support at 0.6832 holds, in case of a pullback.
In the long-term picture, the rise from 0.5913 is the third leg of the entire pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It is still too early to judge whether this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But either way, we should see further rise back to 0.8006 and possibly higher. This will remain the preferred case as long as the 55W EMA remains (now at 0.6730).
