US consumer confidence rose in March, with the Conference Board index rising from 91.0 to 91.8, beating expectations of 88.3. The improvement was driven by a stronger assessment of current conditions, with the current situation index jumping from the previous month by 4.6 points to 123.3. However, the forward-looking picture has deteriorated. The expectations index fell from 72.6 to 70.9, remaining below the 80 threshold usually associated with recession signals.
This divergence highlights a consumer base that views current conditions as stable but remains increasingly cautious about the outlook, especially as geopolitical risks and rising costs weigh on sentiment.
Clearly, inflation concerns are re-emerging as a dominant theme. Responses to the survey showed increasing concerns about the cost of living, with a sharp rise in mentions of oil, gas and war coinciding with the Iranian conflict. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations rose to levels last seen in August 2025, while expectations of higher interest rates jumped significantly, from 34.9% to 42.4%.
