- Bitcoin price may face an extended correction below the $80,000 level, as a 6% y/y Producer Price Index (PPI) raises inflation fears.
- Google Trends data from Alphractal highlights the significant difference between Bitcoin price movement and general search interest during the current market cycle.
- The formation of the classic reversal pattern, the โdouble top,โ indicates the risk of a major breakdown below the $79,000 level.
The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, fell 0.91% during US market hours on Wednesday to trade at $79,750. The decline followed macroeconomic pressures as consumer and wholesale inflation data, combined, crushed market hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
While slowing price action and rising geopolitical tensions have continued to add additional pressure on Bitcoin’s price, recent on-chain data shows strong underlying resilience and stability. Growing demand for BTC. Can bulls defend the $75,000 floor?
BTC faces downside risks as analysts point to major technical red alerts
Bitcoin price fell from $82,361 to $79,270 over the past three days, registering a 3.75% decline as several negative catalysts impacted the risk assets.
The sell-off was driven by geopolitical headlines and hotter-than-expected US inflation data. President Donald Trump’s comments raising concerns about the possible collapse of the ceasefire with Iran added to market anxiety.
This was followed by the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, which recorded inflation at 3.8% year-on-year – slightly above the Wall Street consensus – reflecting continued stability in consumer prices.
Any lingering optimism that the CPI reading was wiped out on Wednesday, May 13, when it was released Producer Price Index (PPI) It provided a sharp surprise. The wholesale price index rose by 1.4% on a monthly basis, the highest rate since March 2022, to 6.0% on a yearly basis. The strong PPI reading is a key indicator that inflation pressures from rising costs are building and are likely to reach consumers in the coming months.
The double inflation data has radically changed market perceptions. As consumer and producer prices accelerated, hopes for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have diminished. A prolonged โhigher for longerโ interest rate environment enhances risk-free returns, increasing the opportunity cost of holding volatile assets like cryptocurrencies.
Despite macroeconomic pressures, the latest data across the series highlights strong conviction from high-net-worth investors and a historic pattern of potential recovery.
BTC reserve risk drops to the accumulation zone
Reserve risk metric for Bitcoin It has entered a clearly lower range, in line with the areas seen in Q4 2018 and Q3 2022. The index reflects long-term holder sentiment when compared to the price of Bitcoin. The low numbers indicate that there is low selling pressure from veteran players even at prices near $80,000, meaning they are still holding on.
The scale plots a decline from price action after a previous high, similar to that seen in previous price charts that preceded long periods of accumulation. Distributed data is increasingly consolidated.
Whales accumulate widely as retail groups in a single area
Bitcoin whale vs retail delta heat map It shows a clear trend of divergence, which has not been seen since the end of 2024. Large holders are showing increased buying interest across a range of price points, while retail buying interest is largely concentrated in one relatively narrow range.
The visualization shows the increasing asymmetry in positioning between the two groups. Records show that a similar heatmap imbalance was previously seen approximately 11 weeks before the 60% price surge.
Current price action continues amid broader market volatility, as delta data highlights contrasting behaviors between whale and retail groups.
Search interest in Bitcoin is lagging behind the price in an unusual divergence
Alpharactal analysis of Google trends It indicates an unusual cycle in the Bitcoin market. In past bull markets, particularly during the peak of 2021, price increases and the volume of user searches were closely aligned, and the number of inquiries about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency-related terms increased in conjunction with price growth.
The current cycle looks different. Bitcoin rose to around $137,000 before falling about 40%, but search activity for all tracked terms related to Bitcoin was relatively flat during the rally as well as the subsequent pullback. The gap between where prices have reached and where public curiosity has registered is wider than at similar moments in previous cycles.
The other observation of the data is who has been leading the price in the recent price action. Unlike 2020-2021, when retail activity was clearly visible in the research, the bull phase for 2024-2025 is also associated with ETF approvals and institutional flows, which are not necessarily driven by consumer buying patterns.
This division between price action and search volume may indicate that there is still a significant wave of retail demand to enter the market. In the past, increases in search volume were associated with extreme price hikes.
Bitcoin is trading at a level well below its recent highs, and overall hype is still fairly low, so the elements that shaped the previous โblowoutโ peaks โ mass retail engagement, media-driven curiosity and hype, and social search frenzy โ are essentially missing.
Bitcoin price correction could extend to $72K if this chart pattern emerges
And with prices falling today Bitcoin price It extended its second reversal from the $82,500 resistance area since last week. The pullback is placed at the resistance trend line of an ascending channel pattern, indicating an intense upside supply pressuring the currency price.
Since February 2026, the coin price has been actively echoing within the two parallel trend lines of the channel, offering active resistance and support to traders. Historically, a retest of the upper boundary has often renewed selling pressure in the market and led to a noticeable price correction.
A deeper analysis of the 4-hour chart highlights the formation of a classic reversal pattern, a double top, which enhances the risk of a prolonged correction. The bearish Bitcoin price also tried to break below the neckline support of the pattern at $79,230, as shown in the chart below.
If the collapse continues, Bitcoin price may extend to a deeper 5.88% retracement to retest the $75,000 level, followed by an extended decline to $72,000 and a retest of the aforementioned channel support.
Conversely, if Bitcoin manages to hold above $79,000, the price trajectory may turn sideways and lead to a short consolidation before the next breakout.
