TThe story so far in 2026 has been very positive for the dry bulk market. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Xclusiv said that “the first four months of 2026 have delivered an unmistakable message from the dry bulk shipping market: the sharp correction that defined most of 2025 is firmly behind us, and the recovery now underway is not just cyclical, but volume-driven, broad-based and structurally compelling.” Dry bulk volumes for January-April totaled 506.7 million tons in 2026, an increase of 9.6% compared to the 462.5 million tons recorded in the same period in 2025, and an increase of 15.2% from the 439.8 million tons recorded in the first four months of 2024. Each successive year has added a clear additional layer to this growth trajectory, confirming that the demand side of the dry bulk equation has been quietly strengthening even as freight rate volatility obscures the underlying picture.”
Source: Exclusive
According to Xclusiv, “The monthly data adds important detail. January opened the year with 126.8 million tons, representing a 15.6% year-over-year increase, the largest monthly gain in the dataset. February followed at 118.7 million tons (+12.4%), maintaining momentum and underscoring that the rise was not the product of a single shipping program or port of origin. March and April maintained strong absolute levels at 131.0 million and 130.1 million tons respectively, marking year-on-year progress of +1.4% and +10.3% against the already high 2025 base, especially considering that March 2025 was itself the strongest month that year at 129.2 million tons.
“The shipping market is following this demand recovery, albeit with the usual amplification of price dynamics,” the shipbroker added. Over the four-month period, the Capesize C5TC rate averaged approximately US$24,953 per day in 2026, an 82% improvement over the low 2025 average of US$13,728 per day for the same window, and a 7.3% advance above the comparable 2024 average worth of US$23,223. per day in April 2026 Of special interest: C5TC’s monthly average reached $31,417 per day, the highest April reading in the three-year data set and more than 96% higher than the $16,022 per day in April 2025, and followed a structurally similar arc, with the four-month average for 2026 of $15,841 per day at the low of 2025 $10,197 per day to levels that roughly match $15,665 per day for 2024, an almost complete reversal of last year’s cost reductions The same logic applies to the mid-sized and smaller segments Ultramax S11TC averaged $15,328 per day during the first four months of 2026, compared to $10,781 per day in 2025 by 42%, while the Handysize HS7TC improved to $12,648 on the day from $9,409 on the day, representing a 34% increase. In each case, 2026 readings returned to 2024 levels overall, confirming that the 2025 weakness was cyclical in nature rather than a structural repricing of bulk earnings capacity.
Source: Exclusive
“The convergence between accelerating freight volumes and recovering freight rates over the same four-month period is no coincidence,” Exclusive concluded. “It reflects a market that has moved through a period of excess supply and is now responding to a gradual balancing out between available tonnage and cargo demand. As the year progresses, the central question is no longer whether the recovery is real as the data conclusively confirms, but whether the current pace and rate of growth can be maintained against the backdrop of fleet deliveries and an increasingly dynamic geopolitical environment that continues to present both risks and opportunities.”
Nikos Rousanoglou, Global Hellenic Shipping News
