Feelings in Cryptocurrency Prediction markets are increasingly pointing to a Bitcoin rally late in the year (Bitcoin), despite recent price fluctuations.
Specifically, insights from Polymarket Pointing Markets expect stronger momentum in December 2026.
The data shows that December leads with a probability of 16%, slightly ahead of October and November at 15% each. September follows at 12%, while June, July and August each carry a 10% probability. Previous months showed weaker conviction, with April at 9%, May at 8%, and March at 1%.
Notably, December saw one of the highest volumes at $11,232, second only to November’s $16,561. October hit $5,608, while previous months like May and June hovered near $5,000, indicating a weaker conviction for a near-term breakout.
To this end, the data suggests that traders are bracing for a late but potentially strong bull phase, with momentum building from September and peaking towards the end of the year, reflecting a seasonal pattern as gains accelerate in the closing months.
Bitcoin quarterly returns
Historically, Bitcoin has shown strong seasonality, with Q4 being its best performing period.
Since 2013, average fourth-quarter returns have ranged between 77% and 85%, far exceeding other quarters. Much of this strength is usually driven by the months of October and November, which often record gains of around 21% and 46%, supported by the post-summer recovery, portfolio rebalancing, and increased institutional activity. December tends to be more mixed.
This corresponds to the broader Cryptocurrency market Cycles, especially in post-halving years, when year-end rallies are common, for the premier digital asset.
However, seasonality is not guaranteed, as the pattern broke in Q4 2025 when Bitcoin fell by 23%, highlighting how macro pressures, corrections and liquidations can exceed historical trends.
While bull years like 2013, 2017 and 2020 saw strong gains in the fourth quarter, bear or consolidation phases like 2018 and 2022 recorded declines.
Bitcoin price analysis
Meanwhile, April started on a positive note, with a short-term rebound over the past 24 hours, but still below the crucial $70,000 level. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $68,600, up about 3% on the day, though still down more than 4% on the week.
The price is still slightly below the 50-day level Sama With a value of $69,191, indicating short-term weakness and difficulty staying above its recent average. The gap between the 200-day simple moving average at $91,046 remains wide, putting Bitcoin well below its long-term trend and reinforcing the broader bearish structure.
The 14 days RSI It stands at 48, reflecting the lack of strong buying or selling pressure, with the market neither overbought nor oversold.
