Tldr:
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- Bitcoin has been rejected near $82,400 over 200 days, reversing the March 2022 pattern that preceded the prolonged downtrend for the price.
- CryptoQuant’s Bull Score dropped from 40 to 20, returning to very bearish levels last seen in early 2026.
- Coinbase Premium remained negative throughout the rally, indicating weak spot demand from US institutional and retail.
- Analysts are eyeing the $70,000 USD achieved by cross-chain traders as the next crucial support area for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s recent price rebound is under scrutiny by on-chain analysts. Bitcoin rebounded sharply from its April lows and briefly rose above $82,000.
However, data from CryptoQuant suggests that the move was largely speculative rather than demand-driven. XWIN Japan has referred to this as a critical turning point for the market.
The basic structure of the rally indicates futures activity rather than true spot accumulation.
The rejection of Bitcoin’s 200DMA reflects a familiar bearish pattern
Bitcoin’s rejection near the 200-day moving average is one of the clearest warning signs right now. The 200DMA is located near $82,400, a level that BTC failed to close convincingly above.
CryptoQuant data makes a direct comparison to price action in March 2022. That period saw a strong rally before BTC resumed its broader downtrend shortly after.
It is worth taking this parallel seriously in light of current market conditions. Returning to 2022, the technical level itself was the ceiling, not the launching pad.
This rejection marks the beginning of a long correction phase for the asset. The current setup follows a similar sequence, according to on-chain data.
Futures activity played a central role in driving the recent price recovery above $80,000. Leveraged long positions are starting to pull back as prices approach that resistance area.
This decline reflects a decline in confidence among speculative traders at higher price levels. Without the intervention of new demand for futures, the upward momentum has since stalled.
Spot demand also fell along with the decline in futures contracts. US Bitcoin ETFs, which were net buyers earlier in May, have recently flipped into net sellers.
This reversal removes the key demand pillar that supported Bitcoin during previous recovery attempts. The shift in ETF behavior is one of the most telling data points in recent weeks.
Bull Score and Coinbase Premium Signal deepen market weakness
The Coinbase Premium Index has remained mostly negative throughout Bitcoin’s recent rally. This reading indicates weak immediate demand from institutional and individual participants in the United States.
Historically, Bitcoin bull markets that have endured have been accompanied by a consistently positive premium. The absence of this condition raises questions about the group’s ability to survive.
The CryptoQuant Bullish Index has since dropped from 40 to 20. This level brings market conditions back into “extremely bearish” territory.
The last time the index sat at similar readings was during the correction from February to March 2026. This comparison reinforces the view that the broader market structure remains under pressure.
Analysts are now closely monitoring the $70,000 area as the next major support level. This area corresponds to the realized price of cross-chain traders, a historically reliable floor during bear market conditions.
A correction towards this level would not be unprecedented in light of current data. This remains a key area for market participants to monitor in the near term.
The overall demand picture for Bitcoin has shifted into contraction territory. Spot buying has slowed, the momentum driven by futures has faded, and institutional participation has declined.
All these factors combined paint a cautious picture for the coming weeks. $70,000 remaining as support could determine the next major move for BTC.
