Tldr:
- Bitcoin is currently trading at 1.26x 4YMA, which puts it at the 33rd percentile of all historical valuations.
- Strategy’s 843,738 BTC stack is expected to reach $388 billion by 2030 under the average historical multiple of 1.87x.
- Even at the minimum level, with BTC at 4YMA and no premium, Strategy’s holdings are valued at $207 billion.
- Strategy’s enterprise value is $77.7 billion today, while the projected average BTC stack is five times larger.
Bitcoin MSTR holdings are attracting renewed interest from market analysts as Bitcoin trades at historically low valuations compared to its four-year moving average (4YMA).
With 843,738 BTC on its balance sheet, the strategy is at the center of a price projection model that suggests an average staked value of $388 billion by 2030.
The model is based entirely on Bitcoin’s historical price behavior, and does not require any unusual market conditions to reach this number.
Bitcoin’s historical valuation lays the foundation
Bitcoin’s four-year moving average has never recorded a negative reading on an annual basis across 3,964 measurable days.
During the same period, Bitcoin’s price traded above its 4YMA 93.3% of the time, with an average multiple of 1.87x.
Today, Bitcoin is trading at 1.26 times the 4YMA, which puts it in the 33rd percentile of all historical valuations. This means that compared to its smoothed average, Bitcoin is currently cheaper than it was about two-thirds of the time.
Analyst Adam Livingstone outlined the model on X, noting that the math doesn’t require Bitcoin to perform heroically. Instead, the forecast applies a steadily slowing growth rate to the 4YMA through 2030.
Starting from current levels, the assumed year-over-year CAGR declines by five percentage points per year, going from 44.5% in 2026 to 24.5% in 2030. Even under this conservative setting, the 4YMA reaches $245,542 by the end of 2030.
Applying the average historical multiple of 1.87x to this number results in an expected BTC price of $459,578. This is not a bull scenario.
It reflects what Bitcoin has done statistically over most of its measurable history relative to its trend line. The average historical multiple of 2.32x would push the expected price higher, but the average case alone produces a stacked value of $388 billion for the strategy.
The floor case, which places BTC at exactly the 4YMA level with no premium, still values Strategy’s holdings at $207 billion. This is more than three times the value of the company’s current Bitcoin stake of about $64 billion.
The strategy’s position in the market relative to its Bitcoin stack
Strategy’s total enterprise value, which covers all preferred equity, debt and software businesses, is currently $77.7 billion. Under average projections, the value of a Bitcoin bundle alone would be worth five times that number.
This gap between the current enterprise value and the value of the Bitcoin futures stack is what Livingstone describes as the most asymmetric public market trade available to retail investors today.
The model assumes that the strategy will not purchase any additional Bitcoin beyond its current price of 843,738 BTC. In fact, the company has continued to acquire Bitcoin continuously.
The strategy announced $21 billion worth of new common stock on the market earlier in 2025 and raised its BTC return target for the year to 25%.
Any additional accumulation will only widen the gap between the current market value and the expected stack value.
The average case expects an increase of 6.1x the value of the stack today and a return of 6.9x compared to the current market value of the strategy.
These numbers are based entirely on Bitcoin continuing to behave as it has historically done relative to its four-year moving average, with no assumptions made about macro conditions, institutional adoption, or new capital inflows.
