The US stock market continued to rise on Wednesday, as rising expectations for a ceasefire in Iran coupled with stronger-than-expected economic data fueled widespread risk-on sentiment.
Semiconductor and technology stocks led the rise while energy stocks fell sharply due to lower oil prices.
Why did the US stock market rise today?
Optimism over the Iran ceasefire, stronger-than-expected employment data, and expanding factory activity combined Pay US stocks Higher for the second session in a row.
1. Hopes for a ceasefire in Iran raise alternating risks
President Donald Trump told reporters that the United States could be out of Iran in two to three weeks, signaling a possible end to the five-week-old conflict. The comments followed reports that Iran had requested a ceasefire and that the United States would consider ending hostilities if the Strait of Hormuz was reopened.
Markets took these comments as a meaningful signal to de-escalate, driving capital out of safe havens and into stocks.
2. ADP payrolls and retail sales show economic resilience
March payrolls, which track monthly changes in private sector employment, came in at 62,000, beating the Dow Jones consensus of 39,000 to 40,000.
February retail sales also rebounded 0.6%ahead of expectations of 0.5%. These data reassured investors that the US economy is capable of absorbing the energy shock resulting from high oil prices without sliding into recession.
3. ISM manufacturing expands but issues inflation warning
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI, which measures the percentage of companies announcing an expansion, rose to 52.7 in March from 52.4 in February.
However, the price index rose to 78.3, its highest level since June 2022. The expansion reading supported the growth narrative, but higher war-related input costs kept inflation concerns alive.
Meanwhile, gold rose above $4,720 an ounce, adding nearly $100 on the day as investors continued to shift from the dollar to the metal (apart from stocks) as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation.
What happened to the major US indices?
- Standard & Poor’s 500: +1.12%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.89% (+413 points to 46,754)
- Nasdaq Composite (Led by Technology): +1.67% (+361 points to 21,951)
The Russell 2000 was in the lead with a gain of 1.54%, reflecting a renewed appetite for small-cap risk. The market breadth was tremendous, as the percentage of issues (3,889) increased by 69.8% compared to a decrease of only 26.3% (1,468).
The buying intensity has been historic since yesterday. The NYSE index, which tracks the difference between stocks that are rising versus falling at any given moment, rose to 2,329 on March 31, the highest reading on record.
The previous all-time high was approximately 2,200, which was set in April 2025 after President Trump halted tariffs. More than 75% of them Standard & Poor’s 500 names He finished the session higher. This effect appears to continue today, also on April 1st.
On the daily chart, the S&P 500 is trading at 6,601, and is holding at the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 6,606. The index is up 4.59% from its March 30 lows of 6,316, rebounding within a structure that still resembles a bearish knife pattern from its late January peak near 7,002.
A daily close above 6606 will open the way towards 6699 (0.382 Fib) and eventually 6815 (0.236 Fib). However, failure to hold this level would expose the 6,513 (0.618 Fibonacci) level as crucial support, with the 6,380 level and the March low of 6,316 below that.
What are the resilient sectors?
The basic materials stock rose by 2.56%, leading all sectors. Weaker The US dollar index is at 99.44 Making commodities cheaper for international buyers, while gold’s rise above $4,720 an ounce lifted miners and material producers.
The industries index rose 2.23% as optimism about the ceasefire boosted infrastructure and defense-adjacent names. Boeing (BA) shares rose 4.95%, and Caterpillar (CAT) shares rose 3.76%, reflecting renewed confidence in global trade and construction demand.
Advanced technology, 1.90%, supported by semiconductors. Shares of Micron Technology (MU) rose 11.34% on renewed confidence in the memory and artificial intelligence supercycle.
Intel (INTC) shares rose 9.93% after announcing the $14.2 billion buyback of its Ireland stake from Apollo Global Management. Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose 1.63%.
Which sectors are declining?
Energy was the clear laggard today, down 3.03%. Brent crude fell by 1.89% to $102 per barrel, as the ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduced the war risk premium on oil. Low crude oil prices directly put pressure on producers’ revenues. Exxon Mobil (XOM) fell 5.17% and Chevron (CVX) fell 4.87%.
The Consumer Defense Index fell 0.74%, as investors shifted away from safe-haven commodities and into higher beta growth names. Philip Morris (PM) fell 5.72% and Procter & Gamble (PG) fell 0.79%, both losing ground as risk trading pulled capital toward cyclical stocks instead.
Top stock news investors are watching
- Nike (NKE) stock fell 14.40% to an 11-year low after announcing its third-quarter financial results. Although the company beat on both revenue ($11.28 billion) and earnings ($0.35 per share), the guidance shocked the market.
- Management expected fourth-quarter sales to decline by 2% to 4%, while Wall Street expected growth of 1.9%. Greater China sales are expected to decline 20% this quarter, and gross margins to shrink 130 basis points to 40.2% due to tariff pressures.
- Eli Lilly (LLY) stock rose 4.65% following FDA approval GLP-1 weight loss pills, Foundayo. The once-daily drug from LillyDirect will begin shipping on Monday, putting Lilly just three months behind Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill in the race to treat oral obesity.
What are investors watching next?
The March non-farm payrolls report is out on Friday The report will be the biggest catalyst for the week, with Wall Street expecting an increase of 59,000 jobs after a loss of 92,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.
Note: April 3 is Good Friday, The markets are closed. The data will be released at 8:30 a.m., but shares will not trade until Monday, April 6.
A strong reading would confirm the resilience story and support stocks when the market reopens, but the ISM price index at 78.3 keeps the stagflation debate alive.
Any shift in Iran ceasefire talks between now and Friday could overwhelm the data entirely, making geopolitical headlines the most important variable in this week’s final sessions.
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