Ethereum (ETH) struggled during the first quarter of the year and the opening period of Q2, but managed to hold a decisive streak near the $2,000 mark.
A new report from market expert Sam Dawodu details three possible paths for ETH for the remainder of 2026, with each scenario linked to catalysts that could push the network’s leading altcoin past $4,000.
Ethereum’s bullish trajectory
Dawodu analysis It starts with price action. He points out that Ethereum has been trending lower since the beginning of the year, with only a short-lived recovery. ETH started 2026 at around $3,100, and later fell to a low of $1,743 in February — its weakest point since early 2023.
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After that, the currency spent most of the year moving sideways between roughly $2,000 and $2,400, suggesting consolidation rather than a clear recovery. The main driver in the report is the following Glamsterdam promotionwhich Dawudu says could be the deciding factor in whether ETH returns to the $4,000 level during 2026.
In his bullish scenario, Glamsterdam should launch on schedule in June. The upgrade will reduce gas fees by 78.6% and raise throughput to up to 10,000 transactions per second.
Meanwhile, news of the upgrade is expected to accelerate Ethereum coins Exchange-traded fund (ETF), the report also assumes that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) exceeds $90,000. With these conditions in place, Dawodu suggests that ETH price could exceed $4,000 in the third quarter, and end the year between $5,000 and $7,500.
ETH could retest the February 2026 low
In the base case, the story is much calmer. Dawodu expects Glamsterdam to be shipped, but without a strong immediate reaction from the market. ETF flows remain positive but slow, and Bitcoin should rise above $85,000 without a decisive breakout that would reignite risk appetite aggressively.
Under this scenario, Ethereum is still expected to exceed $3,000 in the third quarter, and then test $4,000 in the final period of 2026. However, the year-end outcome is more restrictive: Ethereum will close between $3,000 and $4,200.
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Bear case Built on delay and overall compression. Daodu assumes that Glamsterdam was delayed until the last quarter of the year or launched with publishing errors.
He also adds to a more risk-off environment by expecting Bitcoin to fall below $70,000, driven by inflation data or renewed hawkishness from the Fed, along with a return of ETF outflows.
If these assumptions come true, ETH will likely fail to maintain current support and fall below $2,085. From there, the report suggests that Ethereum may retest the range Lowest level for February 2026 Close to $1,743, then ending the year at or below today’s price.
In this bearish scenario, the idea of Ethereum price going beyond $4,000 will likely shift to a 2027 discussion rather than remaining a target for 2026. Currently, the leading altcoin is trading at $2,134.
Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
