Key points
- AUD/USD started a recovery wave above 0.6880 and 0.6920.
- A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance level at 0.6980 on the 4-hours chart.
- Bitcoin recovered above $68,000 but faced sellers near $70,000.
- WTI prices tested the $106 level before correcting some gains.
Technical analysis of AUD/USD
The Australian dollar found support near 0.6835 against the US dollar. AUD/USD formed a base and started a recovery wave above 0.6880.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair crossed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the high of 0.7187 to the low of 0.6833. However, the pair remains well below 0.7000, the 100 SMA (red, 4-hours), and the 200 SMA (green, 4-hours).
On the upside, the pair is now facing sellers near 0.6965. The first major resistance is located at 0.6980. There is also a major downtrend line forming with the resistance level at 0.6980.
Key resistance could be at 0.7000 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the high of 0.7187 to the low of 0.6833. A close above 0.7000 may open the door for gains above 0.7050. In the mentioned case, the bulls may target a move to the 0.7120 level.
Immediate support appears near 0.6910. The first major support is located at 0.6880. Closing below 0.6880 may lead to heavy losses. In the aforementioned case, it may return to the 0.6800 level in the coming days.
Looking at oil, the price failed to stay above the $105 level and recently started a downward correction towards the $98 support level.
Upcoming major economic events:
- US Initial Jobless Claims – Expected 212K, vs. 210K previously.
- US Trade Balance of Goods and Services for February 2026 – $59.2 billion expected, compared to -$54.5 billion previously.
