A new report from Lloyd’s Register Marine Decarbonisation Hub (The Decarb Hub) finds that early investment in a small number of strategically located centers and export gateways can accelerate the availability and uptake of sustainable marine fuels.
The report, titled “Building a Sustainable Marine Fuel Supply Chain,” is the first in the Decarb Hub’s “Marine System in Transition” series. It sets out a global, evidence-based assessment of where alternative marine fuels, including e-fuels and selected sustainable biofuels, are most likely to be produced, exported and stored first, and what this means for infrastructure investment in the near term.
The analysis shows that global bunkering demand is highly concentrated, with just 19 ports supplying about half of the world’s marine fuel. This creates a clear opportunity to accelerate early adoption by equipping a small number of high-impact ports to handle many new fuels safely. However, with the emergence of sustainable marine fuel trade, other ports can also play an important role.
Figure 1: Global map showing potential regional patterns and early trade of sustainable marine fuels.
At the same time, the report also highlights the growing geographic mismatch between where sustainable fuel production is emerging and where demand is currently concentrated. Most credible fuel production projects are located outside today’s largest fueling hubs, meaning that the first wave of supply chains will depend on linking export-oriented production regions to existing demand centers through viable trade routes and infrastructure corridors.
The main finding is that early fuel projects overwhelmingly favor co-location with existing industrial energy clusters and ports. More than 60% of e-fuel projects are located within existing refineries, petrochemical centers or energy sites, helping to reduce delivery risks by leveraging existing facilities, warehousing, permitting and logistics infrastructure.
The report identifies three overlapping regional patterns that are likely to shape early markets. Asian centers are set to rely heavily on imports, while Europe is likely to combine domestic supply with imports. In turn, parts of the Americas, Africa and Asia can become production-led exporters, supplying both domestic and international markets.
Figure 4: Screening of e-fuel projects based on proximity to ports and capacity (bubble size).
The report finds that the main barriers to expansion are increasingly financial, regulatory and coordination, rather than technical. Coordinated investment across production, ports, bunkering infrastructure and shipping demand, supported by blended finance and risk-sharing mechanisms, will be crucial to taking projects from announcement to operation.
The research also introduces the Port Explorer Tool, a multi-criteria screening framework designed to help investors, ports and policymakers identify the next wave of ports with high potential for fuel export, bunkering, or both, outside of today’s existing hubs.
Dr Carlo Raucci, Director of Sustainable Fuels and Strategy at The Decarb Hub, said: “This transformation is not about new fuels, it is about building a resilient maritime energy system. As supply chains diversify and new trade routes emerge, ports will become the critical interface between production and global shipping demand. Our analysis helps identify priority locations where investment and partnerships can accelerate early market formation.”
Figure 5: Screening of selected sustainable biofuel projects by fuel type.
Vasya Surtzi, Fuels Transformation Lead at The Decarb Hub, said: “Project identification is no longer the biggest barrier to scaling alternative fuels, but rather enabling the full supply chain. This means aligning production, port infrastructure, shipping demand and financing. Without this coordination, projects will continue to struggle to reach a final investment decision.”
The report, titled “Building a Sustainable Marine Fuel Supply Chain,” is the first publication in Decarb Hub’s “Maritime System in Transition” series, which explores decarbonisation, resilience and the future of global shipping and is part of the Fuel Certification Programme. This series is designed to provide decision-makers with the evidence and frameworks needed to accelerate a reliable and well-sequential offshore energy transition. Future publications will build on this foundation, examining how infrastructure, finance, fleet and policy can come together to create a cohesive and resilient system.
Source: Lloyd’s Register Center for Marine Decarbonization (The Decarb Hub)
