Markets
Oil prices erased their rebound yesterday towards the $100 per barrel level. There is little news to report about the ongoing talks between the United States and Iran. Markets see it as a positive sign. Iranian state television said it had obtained a draft of the initial framework for the informal memorandum of understanding, which included the withdrawal of US military forces and the lifting of the naval blockade. In return, Iran is committed to allowing commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within one month. The draft stated that future management of the Strait would be undertaken by Iran in cooperation with Oman. The price of Brent crude fell to currently trade around $96. Core bonds benefit slightly from lower oil prices. Changes in the US are limited to less than 2 basis points. German yields fell by a similar amount with the front end slightly outperforming (-2.0 basis points) but that did not impact money market bets for a rate hike by the ECB in June, far from it. Market implied probability rose from +/- 92% yesterday to 95% today as ECB heavyweight Schnabel’s comments continued yesterday. Stock markets are rising again. The EuroStoxx50 is recouping part of yesterday’s losses, and S&P500 stocks are holding near record highs. Economic data was limited to ADP’s weekly employment estimates but had no impact on markets. At nearly 36K (based on a four-week moving average), weekly job growth remains among the series’ fastest, if brief, in history.
Currency markets are showing little movement. The New Zealand dollar is an exception to the rule after the central bank barely kept interest rates at 2.25% during this morning’s decision. The status quo came with strong messages that increases were imminent and “more and more likely.” The markets increased their aggressive bets, with the first step fully priced for the month of September, to be followed by several other steps until March of next year. The 3.25% currently expected brings it in line with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s view. NZD/USD is rushing towards the 0.59 barrier. Most other dollar pairs maintain a tight range with EUR/USD trading around the 1.165 level. USD/JPY is consolidating around the 159.4 area, unfazed by BOJ Governor Ueda’s thinly veiled hint of near-term rise(s) this morning. Sterling loses ground to EUR/GBP 0.866 amid gold outperformance.
News and opinions
New car registrations in the EU have risen by 4.2% since the beginning of the year in April 2026 (to 3,794 thousand). The market continued to benefit from strong consumer demand for a range of electrified technologies, supported by new and revised tax benefits and incentive schemes across major European countries. In absolute terms, new battery electric vehicle registrations increased by 33.8% when comparing April to the beginning of 2025 with April to the beginning of 2026 (747,000). Battery electric vehicles represent 19.7% of the EU market, up from 15.3% the previous year. Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) registrations accounted for 38.2% of the market (from 35.3%), and remain the preferred choice among EU consumers. Moreover, the combined market share of petrol and diesel cars fell to 30.2%, from 38.1%. In Belgium, new car registrations have fallen by 4.5% (151.6 thousand) since the beginning of the year compared to 2025. Petrol-powered cars remain the dominant choice (43.8% from 42.2%), ahead of battery electric cars (35.2% from 33.3%) and hybrid electric cars (12.2% from 12%). Compared to the first four months of 2025, only new registrations for battery electric vehicles increased (+1.1%).
UK energy regulator Ofgem today announced a 13% increase in maximum energy prices for the third quarter of this year. Customers will see a lower price increase of about 5% on their electricity bills compared to gas bills, which rise by 24%. The current maximum price for a typical household paying by direct debit for gas and electricity is £1,641. In practice, the increase will be much smaller than the rise to £1,862 despite Ofgem updating its review of typical domestic consumption. This is how much energy a typical household uses. From 1 July, the figures will be updated to reflect the fact that households are using less energy than before – around 7% less electricity and 17% less gas compared to the last revision. As a result, the maximum rate level from 1 July will be £1,663 per annum – reflecting these updated values. At the height of the energy crisis, the government intervened to cap bills at £2,500. Currently, 40% (22 million) of accounts are fixed tariffs and therefore not affected by price increases.
