The AlphaRaccoon username was removed from the Polymarket account after users on Discord and X speculated that the trader may have been a Google insider.
US prosecutors have charged Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo, also known online as “AlphaRaccoon,” for allegedly using confidential internal Google search data to profit nearly $1.2 million through bets placed on the Polymarket prediction market platform.
According to a criminal complaint unsealed in the Southern District of New York, Spagnuolo allegedly accessed non-public “search year 2025” data from Google’s internal systems and used that information to trade on Google-related markets at Polymarket before the results became public.
Insider trading case from Polymarket
Prosecutors charged him with commodity fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a parallel civil complaint charging him with insider trading violations under the Commodity Exchange Act. Deposit Countries Google keeps its “Search This Year” rankings secret because the annual campaign has commercial value and is designed around a coordinated public reveal aimed at attracting media attention, user engagement, and ad demand.
Investigators said Spagnuolo had access to an internal Google software tool that contained confidential trend data and that the tool itself displayed a “Google Confidential” warning banner. Authorities allege that between October and December 2025, Spagnuolo used an AlphaRaccoon Polymarket account to bet on at least 23 Google-related prediction markets, including contracts related to “1st most searched person on Google this year” and “5 most searched people on Google 2025.”
The complaint says that after reviewing internal Google data on October 15, 2025, Spagnuolo made trades the next day, backing Kendrick Lamar to become the most searched person of the year while simultaneously betting that Pope Leo XIV would not achieve the same result. He continued to make trades over the following weeks using knowledge not available to the public, prosecutors said.
On November 27, 2025, investigators alleged that Spagnuolo once again accessed Google’s secret search rankings and learned that the d4vd musician had surpassed Kendrick Lamar as the most sought-after person of the year. Roughly three hours later, the AlphaRaccoon account allegedly placed bets in favor of d4vd even though the market had assigned almost no probability to that outcome at the time.
The filing indicates the account risked approximately $2.75 million across marketplaces associated with Google Year in Search between October 15 and December 4, 2025. After Google publicly released its Year in Search results on December 4, prosecutors said the AlphaRaccoon account generated profits of approximately $1.2 million.
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Investigators also allege that Spagnuolo attempted to hide the origin of the proceeds by moving cryptocurrencies across multiple wallets, decentralized swap services, and a privacy-focused transfer service.
Kalshi cracks down on insider trading cases
The allegations against Spagnuolo come as prediction markets face increasing scrutiny over insider trading activity. And in April, the competing platform Kalshi Forbidden Three American political candidates were found to have placed bets related to their election races. These include Minnesota Senator Matt Klein, Texas congressional candidate Ezekiel Enriquez, and Virginia Senate candidate Mark Moran.
Kalci said the trades violated exchange rules that prevent people with direct influence on an event from trading related contracts. The platform issued fines and a five-year ban.
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