A late break of support at 0.7807 indicates that the USD/CHF corrective bounce has been completed. The initial bias returned to the downside this week to retest 0.7760 first. A strong break there would resume the decline from 0.8041. The next target will be a 61.8% forecast from 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7898 at 0.7733. Risks will now remain on the downside as long as resistance at 0.7898 holds, in case of a recovery.
In the bigger picture, as long as the 55 W EMA (now at 0.8028) holds, the decline from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of a larger downtrend. A strong break at 0.7603 would target a 100% forecast at 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.
In the longer term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) is seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade downtrend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It is uncertain whether the drop from 1.0342 is the second stop of the pattern, or a resumption of the downtrend. But in both cases, the outlook will remain bearish as long as the 0.8756 support turns into resistance (2021 bottom). A retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
