Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD shares are set to face renewed pressure when US markets open on Monday. Weekend guidance from the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) expands licensing rules to include advanced AI chips sold to Chinese-owned companies abroad.
The Trump administration left a year-long implementation gap after rescinding the Biden-era AI deployment rule last May. Industry sources say hundreds of thousands of advanced chips have been leaked to China-linked buyers overseas.
Why Monday’s Opening Could Get Bumpy
Previous draft rules requiring approval Global exports of artificial intelligence chips It led to Nvidia falling 1.8% and AMD falling 2.2% in the previous sessions. A similar but more contained reaction appears possible on Monday.
The new guidance is a clarification of implementation, not a blanket ban. Existing licensed sales of lower-tier chips can continue under the previous conditions. Products that have already been shipped remain in customers’ hands.
Direct damage to profits may be limited. Nvidia revealed that there will be no shipments of the Data Center Hopper to China in the fiscal first quarter of 2027.
This compares to $4.6 billion the previous year. Total data center revenue still reached a record $75.2 billion on Blackwell 300 demand.
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What the new rule actually does
The campaign applies to upper tier processors. Affected products include Nvidia’s Rubin and Blackwell families and AMD’s MI350x accelerator. The Bank for International Settlements will now require licenses from any buyer whose ultimate parent lives in China.
Explanation follows Previous Chinese export rules That capped sales of advanced semiconductors. Management Cancel Biden’s broader framework ahead of its May 2025 effective date.
Industry sources He said Hundreds of thousands of advanced chips arrived at Chinese-owned companies overseas during the gap year. Singapore and Malaysia are among the suspected routing centres.
Federal prosecutors previously charged operators of A $2.5 billion GPU smuggling ring Associated with similar conversion patterns.
Compliance is tightening, and cryptocurrency sympathy is at play
Exporters must verify the ultimate parent of each buyer, not just the destination country. Resellers and cloud vendors face a higher barrier when it comes to KYC checks.
Entity List Additions Export restrictions in the Middle East It has been placed on top of the Chinese framework since 2024.
Trump earlier cancellation Of Biden’s broader controls, entity-level restrictions were left intact.
Artificial intelligence-themed cryptocurrencies are often traded in sympathy with US semiconductors. Related weakness is possible if chip sentiment deteriorates in the cash session.
Recent movements in Top AI Stocks We tracked Blackwell’s shipments closely.
The campaign could weaken key revenues or redirect capacity toward American and allied customers.
Next quarter’s earnings will provide the first tough reading.
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