IIn its latest weekly report, shipbroking firm Tanker, about 11.6% of the total Conversely, the bulk sector remains largely isolated, with only 65 vessels subject to sanctions, representing just 0.4% of the fleet.
Source: Exclusive Ship Brokers
According to Sanctioned (56 out) 65) Also over 16 years of age, the absolute volume is insufficient to cause the same structural deformation observed in carriers.
“The composition of the tanker sector is particularly critical for market balance,” the shipbroker added. Sanctioned tonnage is highly concentrated in larger categories of crude oil and dirty products: Aframax/LR2 vessels represent 324 units (26% of its total fleet), followed by VLCC/ULCC (160 units/18%) and Suezmaxes (118 units/17%). While these vessels are still technically active, they are excluded Largely from prime charter, banking and insurance, this effectively creates a “hidden” fleet, tightening the availability of compliant, high-quality tonnage even as the overall number of the fleet continues to rise on paper. This “hidden” fleet now faces an uncertain future: with Venezuelan sanctions lifted, Russian waivers fluctuating due to the ongoing Gulf War, and the course of Iranian sanctions remains unpredictable.
“Despite the dampening effect that healthy freight rates have had on demolition activity over the past few years, a turnaround is imminent. In dry bulk, recycling remains moderate, with 30 vessels (1.51 million dwt) demolished in the first four months of 2026. Although consistent with long-term trends, this pace is much slower than the aggressive activity seen in late 2025, although still higher than in The same period from 2022 to 2022.” 2025. In contrast, tanker demolition remains constrained for the legacy fleet, with just 19 tankers scrapped in the first four months of 2026. While this represents an improvement over the near-zero activity seen in early 2023 and 2024 – and slightly higher than the 14 ships scrapped in 2025 – it pales in comparison to the size of the legacy tanker fleet and as these opportunities disappear, more owners are finally seeking To direct their old ships towards scrap yards, this is further exacerbated by the decline in scrap prices in 2026, and their failure to stimulate demolition, with current rates standing at US$410-430/litre in India, US$460-480/litre in Bangladesh, US$450-460/litre in Pakistan, and US$280-285/litre in Turkey. “Almost 5% lower than in May 2025 and 19% lower than in May 2023,” Exclusive said.
Source: Exclusive Ship Brokers
“As the shadow fleet faces declining utility and increasing economic pressures, the industry is at an inflection point,” the shipbroker concluded. “Whether or not the expected wave of demolition materializes will depend on the delicate balance between falling scrap prices and the inevitable obsolescence of sanctioned cargo.”
Nikos Rousanoglou, Global Hellenic Shipping News
