This is Bitcoin’s weakest bear market – but has it hit the bottom?

Bitcoin price action only declined in June, falling by double digits as capital continued to decline Exit ETFs Amid escalating geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions.

However, the leading cryptocurrency is down 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko datamaking it the shallowest bear market in Bitcoin date.

In 2012, the bear market drawdown exceeded 90%, according to Cryptoquant Data. Since then, this number has been declining, reaching 82% for the next two cycles and 74% for the 2022 cycle. Compared to 50% this cycle, withdrawals are becoming shallower over time.

“Bitcoin is now a more institutional macro asset, backed by ETFs, deeper liquidity, and a larger base of long-term allocators,” said Jeff Kuo, senior analyst at cryptocurrency exchange CoinEx. Decryption. “That’s why withdrawals have been compressed across cycles, and I don’t expect another 80% drawdown in the current cycle.”

“The Bitcoin holder composition in this cycle is very different from what we have seen in previous cycles,” said Martin Lee, head of content and market insights at DWF Labs. Decryption. “We have institutions and companies that have Bitcoin on their balance sheet. We expect withdrawals to be more shallow and overall volatility to be more subdued as we have seen over the past couple of years.”

Does this mean that the bear market has bottomed? Experts said it was unlikely DecryptionWhich indicates that she still has a long way to go yet.

Why didn’t Bitcoin hit the bottom?

Although the 50% decline represents a “meaningful reset,” Koo does not believe the bear market is over.

Instead, the CoinEx analyst said investors should pay attention to “ETF outflows, macroeconomic tightening, and liquidity rotation.” That will help determine how long a bear market could last, Kuo said.

Alex Tsybaev, chief strategy officer at B2PRIME Group, echoed Ko’s view, noting that the bear market is far from over. Instead, he said, “the current picture is bearish due to a combination of a series of ETF outflows and macro and on-chain pressure caused by both.”

“Since May 18, there has been only one day of inflows, June 4, which shows how weak the negative supply is,” Tsypaev stressed.

Determine the bottom of Bitcoin

Both Ko and Tsipayev collectively highlighted the $60,000 level as the first important major psychological level, with a bearish scenario including a retest of the $55,000 and $45,000 levels.

Wintermute has a similarly bearish view, suggesting that the $62,000 support has been given way after Bitcoin’s recent decline, on Tuesday. Note. “Bitcoin never spent much time in the $50,000 to $59,000 range heading into 2024, so there are no real technical levels here. That leaves flow as the thing that determines the trend,” the market maker said.

This reflects users in the prediction market Countlessowned by Decryption The parent company, Dastan, has Assigned 72% Bitcoin’s next move will likely push it to $55,000. This number is up from 39% on June 1, confirming the shift in sentiment in favor of the bears.

Kuo highlighted the potential cooling of geopolitical expectations as a crucial catalyst that could help form a bottom for Bitcoin. A cooling off on this front could lift energy and risk aversion, opening the door for the Fed to shift to easy monetary policy, or at least a signal that further hikes are off the table, Ko said.

Increased demand for ETFs is the second catalyst highlighted by Koo.

on Alternative currency In the introduction, the DWF analyst noted how Hyperliquid’s HYPE has deviated from the broader market trend. This is a “potential sign” that protocols are being evaluated individually, on their own merits, rather than at the mercy of Bitcoin’s performance.

“Not every token will recover, this simply depends on how indices are priced, as assets are priced on their merits over time – the same thing happens in stocks,” Lee said.