Bitcoin ETFs have lost $2.1 billion in June so far as the market sell-off deepens

The outlook for the cryptocurrency market remains bleak as Bitcoin ETFs continue to bleed amid a challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have lost $2.1 billion in June so far, accelerating $2.4 billion outflows in May, according to SoSoValue data. The outflow of $214 million on Wednesday shows that the trend is still in place even after the crisis June 4, sudden influx It broke a 13-day losing streak that drained nearly $4.4 billion from these products.

Since May 10, total net assets have fallen by about $33 billion from $109 billion to $77 billion, in line with Bitcoin’s 27% decline from its May 10 peak of $81,443 to its low of $59,353.

Adam Himes, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, said that despite the continuing negative trend, the pace of ETF outflows had “moderated appreciably.” Decryption. “The pressure has not clearly stabilized yet, but it is exhausting and not increasing.”

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According to Himes, there are three reasons behind the series of outflows: leveraged funds redeeming stocks after arbitrage spot ETFs against futures, a long-term exodus from the highest-fee fund among US spot products, which has now surrendered nearly $27 billion since its launch, and a rotation of capital toward AI stocks and upcoming tech IPOs.

“The first two are mechanical and self-determined,” he said. “The third is the one we monitor, because it is related to risk appetite and not market structure.” “Several other funds had net inflows on Monday even while the headline remained negative, which tells you the selling is focused rather than general.”

Outflows are mainly driven through suspicion Resulting from the US-Israeli war with Iran, which has entered its 103rd day. The conflict has caused oil prices to rise, leading to massive fluctuations that have affected energy prices and inflation numbers in the United States.

Annual inflation rate It rose from 3.8% to 4.2% in MayAdding to the problems for the Federal Reserve, which kept the interest rate unchanged between 3.50% to 3.75% for six months.

“While a higher-than-expected CPI reading is not ideal for risk assets like Bitcoin, I don’t think it will significantly change market expectations,” said Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly. Decryption.

For ETF outflows to dry up, “we need to see spot demand pick up and Bitcoin recover to the $70,000 range,” he said. Once Bitcoin starts showing sustained strength and attracting attention again, “ETF flows will likely follow,” he added.

Himes thinks otherwise. “What stops the bleeding is the interest rate signal, not the price rise,” he said, explaining that “the carry trade needs the basis to push back, and the allocation bid needs the price rise to fade into the market.”

Not all inflation data indicated an increase. Core CPI fell month-on-month to 0.2%, which the price market “read as a slight relief,” Himes said.

Bitcoin predictions for the quarter finals

Bitcoin It is up 1.5% in the past 24 hours and is trading at around $62,560, according to CoinGecko data.

Derivatives data shows that total open interest continued to rise after the weekend sell-off, helping Bitcoin recover to $63,000. The Coinbase Premium Index is still hovering below zero, but has improved significantly compared to early June levels, according to History of the hijab.

Experts do not share the same opinion regarding the end-of-quarter forecast for Bitcoin.

While Singh remains bearish and is not ruling out a potential drop to the $50,000 range, Hymes remains conservative, expecting flows to stabilize before the price stabilizes.

“The market has spent a week defending the 200-week moving average, and a fragile base around that level seems more acceptable to us than a sharp recovery,” Himes said. “The first meaningful technical recovery levels lie well above the spot price, and next week’s Fed meeting is the clear catalyst in either direction.”

Himes highlighted the asymmetry in the current setup.

“A decisive break below $60,000 would open up a much larger downtrend than the upside available in the relief move,” he said. “If the June inflation reading shows energy bleeding into the core rate, the price rise will get stronger, and the consolidation extended. If the core rate holds, the second half of the year will be better than the second half of June.”

At Myriad, a company-owned forecasting marketplace DecryptionParent company Dastan, users prefer a bearish outlook, placing a 71% chance In its next move, it will reach $55,000 instead of $84,000.