SpaceX is preparing for what could become the largest initial public offering in history, with an expected offering price of $135 per share and a target valuation of at least $1.8 trillion. With nearly 13 billion shares outstanding, the company could immediately rank among the largest publicly traded companies in the United States.
But SpaceX’s debut has already divided investors. Some traders are betting on a historic rise. Others warn it could become one of the most painful retail traps in recent memory.
Can SpaceX reach $4 trillion valuation on day one?
Prediction markets exhibit very bullish outliers. Some bettors predict that SpaceX’s closing market capitalization could exceed $4 trillion by the end of the first trading day. This means that the stock price is above $300, which represents a gain of more than 125% of the IPO price.
However, the probability assigned to this outcome is very low, close to 1%. A more moderate forecast places a roughly 38% chance that SpaceX will exceed $2.4 trillion, implying a closing price of about $185, or a 35% premium over the IPO level.
At the lower end of the forecast, there is little possibility of that SpaceX It is possible that the stock will close at a level below one trillion dollars, which implies that the share price is close to $76, that is, about 40% less than the IPO price. Some analysts even suggested a base valuation closer to $780 billion, highlighting the wide variation in estimates.
The size of these valuation ranges reflects the unprecedented hype surrounding SpaceX’s exposure to both artificial intelligence and the commercial space economy.
Evaluation problem
Based on its prospectus, SpaceX generated revenue of approximately $18.67 billion last year. At a valuation of $1.8 trillion, the company will trade at a price-to-sales ratio of about 96.
Historically, companies in manufacturing industries have struggled to maintain price-to-sales ratios above 30 over long periods. A ratio close to 100 raises concerns that initial pricing may reflect sentiment rather than sustainable fundamentals.
Mega IPOs also have a mixed historical record. Companies like Facebook and Saudi Aramco saw major withdrawals within six months of their debut. Initial enthusiasm often fades once post-IPO closing dynamics and earnings realities set in.
Structural tailwinds can lead to early price inflation
Unlike traditional IPOs, SpaceX may benefit from an acceleration of index listing. Nasdaq has revised its Express Entry rules, which could allow SpaceX to join the Nasdaq-100 in about 15 trading days. A company can also qualify for the Russell indices within five trading sessions, and S&P 500 inclusion rules may be waived.
This is important because passive ETFs tracking these indices will have to buy billions of dollars worth of SpaceX shares soon after they list. This mechanical demand could push prices higher in the short term.
However, this forced buying also leads to a concentration of floating ownership in passive funds. Once the lock-in period ends, accelerated selling can create volatility, potentially shifting risk to late entrants to the retail sector.
CoinCodex SpaceX price forecast for 2026-2027
According to CoinCodex SpaceX price forecastthe stock may experience moderate consolidation soon after the IPO before entering a stronger bullish phase later in 2026. In June 2026, the expected average price is $123.32, just below the expected IPO level of $135.
July and August follow a similar pattern of relative weakness, with forecast averages approaching $119.18 and $118.53, suggesting that early enthusiasm may subside as the market reassesses valuation and closing dynamics.
Momentum is expected to strengthen starting in September 2026, when the average price will rise to $141.91. This shift represents the first meaningful break above IPO pricing in the model. The acceleration continues in October, with the expected average rising to $182.47, followed by $197.11 per month.
November and $199.87 in December. This late-year rally means that sustained demand, potentially linked to earnings visibility or index inclusion effects, could support a significant recovery after the initial adjustment phase.
Moving into early 2027, expectations will stabilize in the $200 to $208 range during the first quarter, with the March 2027 average at $207.85. Prices then show modest consolidation in the spring, hovering just above $200 until June 2027.
Under this baseline scenario, the model suggests a long-term upside of approximately 60% to 66% from the IPO price, but it does not particularly support extreme first-day upside scenarios above $300 per share. Instead, it indicates a more gradual rise after initial fluctuations rather than an immediate doubling in value.
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