Bitcoin (Bitcoin) The price will likely not reach cycle lows, according to a June 12, 2026 report from Galaxy Digital Inc. (NASDAQ: GLXY).
According to Galaxy, the price of Bitcoin is now falling in line with previous bear market cycles. Company data suggests the decline will continue before hitting a true bottom, with the base case suggesting a low of $40,000 to $46,000 sometime before Q4 2026.
“Despite the declining impact of successive halvings, and much speculation about a ‘super cycle’, empirical data once again shows evidence that the four-year cycle is intact,” Galaxy Digital male.
The company noted that the price of Bitcoin fell by 51% from its all-time high, eight months after its peak in October 2025. As a result, the major currency finally fell below the 48% decline of the 2013-2015 cycle at the same point, thus ending its run as the lightest decline ever.
Galaxy expects further sell-off in Bitcoin prices
However, the current decline is still much shallower than the last two bear markets. Given that previous cycles have bottomed 77% to 85% below their peak, Galaxy claimed that the current decline has not yet reached the depth that represents a true historical bottom.
Beyond its base case, the company has outlined a more extreme scenario in which a deeper pullback could see the price fall to between $30,000 and $37,000. Additionally, the company indicated a more moderate outcome where steady buying would hold the floor near $51,000 to $54,000.
The company’s Bitcoin price forecast could be invalidated over the coming months, likely spurred by a new wave of institutional buying. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s price has been following the cash flows of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, as Finebold has done. He explained.
