SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) received its first major bearish call from Wall Street after CFRA initiated coverage of the aerospace giant with a “sell” rating and a $115 price target.
The update follows SpaceX Standard initial public offering (IPO), which raised $75 billion after the company priced 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, giving it an initial valuation of about $1.8 trillion.
Shares opened at $150 on June 12, rose to $176 during trading, and closed at approximately $160.95, representing a gain of approximately 19% on the IPO price. The rise pushed SpaceX’s market value to more than $2 trillion.
According to CFRA analyst Keith Snyder, the company’s current valuation already reflects significant long-term optimism despite significant execution risks across several key business segments.
The analyst noted an unfavorable risk-reward picture driven by high growth expectations and heavy capital investment requirements, and rely on the successful marketing of major projects, especially Starlink.
The CFRA also raised concerns about SpaceX’s foreign dependence Finance and the possibility that investors will assign excessive value to future growth initiatives before achieving meaningful profitability.
The report highlighted risks related to spacecraft development, satellite deployment, AI infrastructure investments, data centers, and other capital-intensive projects.
The CFRA argued that delays, cost overruns, regulatory hurdles, or slower-than-expected monetization could pressure future revenues.
Wall Street is cautious about SPCX stock price
Despite CFRA’s bearish outlook, Wall Street remains divided on SpaceX stock.
Based on two analyst ratings at TipRanksSpaceX currently holds a consensus of “Hold.” One analyst recommends buying the stock, while the other recommends selling.
Analyst forecast data shows an average 12-month price target for SpaceX stock of $152.50, which implies a decline of approximately 5.25%. The highest target is $190, while the lowest target is $115 for the CFRA forecast.
Concerns about SpaceX’s valuation
The range of forecasts highlights the uncertainty surrounding SpaceX’s valuation following its market debut. The bullish scenario indicates an upside of approximately 18% from current levels, while the bearish scenario indicates a decline of more than 28%.
SpaceX’s public market debut has sparked debate over whether the company’s multi-trillion-dollar valuation can be justified by future growth opportunities.
Optimistic analysts point to SpaceX’s leadership in reusable rockets, the continued expansion of Starlink satellite internet, and emerging opportunities in artificial intelligence infrastructure and space services.
However, skeptics argue that SpaceX stock is trading at a high valuation and faces significant execution risk across multiple growth initiatives.
Concerns also remain about Starship’s commercialization timeline and the significant capital expenditure required to support the company’s long-term ambitions.
