The March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report has arrived in a ghost town but came with a big surprise: +178K vs. 60K expectations.
This completely erases the previous month’s release -92k (which was revised to -133k – but even this is overshadowed by today’s release)
This brought the unemployment rate down to 4.3% (from 4.4%) with the unrounded figure reaching 4.256%.
With major US stock and commodities markets completely closed for Good Friday, with only futures open and completely stuck, in a shortened holiday session (open until 1:30 pm ET), Wall Street is left holding massive amounts of data with almost nowhere to trade it.
US stock and bond futures remain sold off, as data resists downgrades further, as if part of the discussion – US dollar rose slightly but little changed.
As the economy appears to be bouncing back, traders will need to remain cautious about potential pricing in the rises – and this will have to be seen again in the next few months, as data will gradually reflect rising energy costs.
(Gas prices were out of this world to be fair – this will impact activity.)
Stock futures sell
One-hour chart of the Dow Jones index. April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView
Some algorithms lost their minds at the release, but that didn’t last long – stocks remained below the downtrend line.
Bonds follows suit
1H bond chart. April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView
Happy vacation and enjoy the long weekend!
Things could get pretty wild when they reopen on Monday, but can only get better on Tuesday, with only the heaviest participants returning then.
