The Bitcoin market is struggling, but holders have yet to deliver their coins, according to the AlFractal founder.
Bitcoin reached nearly $67,000 on Monday after US President Donald Trump said the United States helped broker a peace deal with Iran that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, new data suggests that Bitcoin holders are experiencing one of the largest periods of paper loss in history, yet panic-driven selling activity remains unusually weak across exchanges.
Pain builds beneath the surface
Bitcoin has now recorded the second largest unrealized loss in its history. This means that a large number of BTC holders are currently experiencing fiat losses.
However, Joao Widson, founder of Alfractal, said realized losses are still relatively low, suggesting investors are not selling their holdings at a loss in large numbers despite market pressures.
Wedson He explained Many market participants are underwater, but the typical signs of widespread capitulation have yet to appear. According to his analysis, the gap between high unrealized losses and low realized losses is a key signal for the market. He warned that if realized losses start to rise sharply, Bitcoin could face a more aggressive purge phase.
For now, the data suggests that panic selling remains limited.
“Liquidity grab”
Some market experts are not convinced that Bitcoin’s recent rebound is sustainable. Cryptocurrency analyst Ted Bellows, for example, He said Many traders now believe that the war situation is beginning to ease and that an agreement has already been reached, which is why some expect the market to rise strongly. But according to him, Bitcoin’s recent move looked more like a liquidity grab than a true breakout.
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He said Bitcoin could still rise towards the $68,000 to $70,000 range if it can achieve that. He catches More than $65,000. However, he does not currently see enough strength in the market to confirm such a move. Bellows added that this week’s Fed meeting and the possibility of a rate hike from Japan could play a big role in determining the market’s next direction.
So said analyst Lenert Snyder male Maintaining the $64,800 level is important to keep the short-term uptrend intact.
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