Brent crude was trading at $79.46 a barrel on June 18, down about 30% from $112.93 a month ago, and with the Strait of Hormuz now open and ships moving again, many expected prices to fall further. They didn’t.
The answer goes back to the forces that are quietly keeping a minimum on crude oil even as supply returns.
Open does not mean flow
About 500 commercial ships remain stranded within the Persian Gulf, according to the maritime intelligence company KeplerThe narrow strait cannot clear them all at once. Navigation traffic in Hormuz These levels are still a fraction of pre-war levels, as ship captains, insurers and ship owners wait for confirmed mines to be cleared and to return to internationally recognized transit lanes before their ships are required to enter.
Energy Information Administration June forecast Hormuz is supposed to remain effectively closed through most of the summer, with oil shipments returning to pre-conflict traffic levels only in early 2027.
Producers face their own schedule
Restarting oil fields that have been shut down for more than three months is not a switch that flips overnight. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, made it clear in an article statement To the Associated Press.
“Sentiment has clearly improved. But sentiment is not the same as supply. It will take some time for production to pick up again, logistics to normalize, and the risk premium embedded in crude oil prices to dissipate.”
Economists in Economics of capital It is estimated that energy flows could reach 80% of pre-war levels by September. Iraq, whose fields have been subjected to deeper closures, may need nearly a year to fully recover.
Markets are also factoring in the possibility that the Iran deal may not hold. The current one US naval presence In the Gulf, coupled with uncertainty over Iran’s compliance, means traders have not fully grasped the geopolitical turmoil. The residual risk premium acts as a price floor.
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