Operational complexity has replaced geopolitics as the top mining business risk in professional services firm EY’s 2026 rankings, as miners struggle to lift production from deeper, more scattered and less predictable ore bodies while costs continue to rise.
EY’s ranking is based on a survey conducted in June and July 2025 of 500 senior mining and metals leaders at companies with revenues of at least $1 billion (C$1.4 billion). Rising costs and productivity ranked second, capital ranked third, and geopolitics fell to seventh, even as tariffs and export controls continue to reshape trade flows. AI has moved to the top of miners’ investment agenda within EY’s 8th-ranked Digital Risk and Innovation, as companies look for gains in productivity and predictability.
“It is difficult to have an unhindered flow of materials, either because the process is complex or unpredictable,” said Theo Yamago, head of metals and mining at EY Americas. Northern Miner During a Toronto industry event last month. “That’s why it’s actually number one.”
Capital moves first toward mergers, joint ventures, and field expansions, because they can add reserves faster than new fields are discovered, permitted, and built. In this context, more consistent production, tighter cost control, and the practical use of artificial intelligence matter to investors more than any other fluctuation in the geopolitical mood.
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