Bitcoin ‘resilient’ after hawkish Fed, but no ‘return in demand’: analysts

Bitcoin The market is moving sideways, and analysts watching it largely agree on the problem: sellers are down, but buyers aren’t coming back.

The leading cryptocurrency traded around $64,700 on Monday, up 0.8% on the day but down about 13% over the past month and about 50% below the record high of $126,080 set in October, according to CoinGecko data.

Cryptocurrencies have proven “more resilient than expected” in the face of new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh Falcons debutCoinShares Research Head James Butterville He said On Friday, with Bitcoin falling a smaller-than-expected 1.6% versus the S&P 500’s 1.2% and the Nasdaq’s 1.3%. The analyst acknowledged that while price action is not strong in absolute terms, it is “stronger than many expected” in the face of the Fed’s hawkish reset and pullback on policy signals.

“Rising real interest rate expectations remain a headwind for liquidity-sensitive assets, so an initial hawkish interpretation of the market made sense,” Butterville noted, but pointed to a broader “more nuanced” setup with persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and a more reactive Fed building the monetary case for Bitcoin over the long term. “In other words, short-term aggregate motivation is constrained, but Bitcoin’s structural case as an alternative monetary asset is not going away,” he added.

Bitcoin’s muted reaction to Warsh’s debut was telling, said Tim Sun, lead researcher at HashKey. The slight decline reflects selling pressures “almost exhausted, rather than demand returning,” he said, as the market continues to rebuild its Fed reading as Warsh backs away from forward guidance. For any rally to turn into a trend, two things must align: a return to risk appetite and “cooperation from long-term interest rates,” Sun said. He sees Bitcoin returning to a macro-asset trading framework, with ETF flows, oil prices, and long-term Treasury yields the variables to watch.

Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitonics, said the price action looks less like a trend than a confrontation. He noted that ETF flows still indicate distribution, with US funds bleeding about $90.7 million on June 18 and about $4 billion over the past month. The weekly pace has since slowed to a few hundred million per SoSoValue dataBut Bitcoin refused to collapse, instead contracting in range as the derivatives market deleveraged.

Chen noted that the liquidation map is skewed to the downside, with about $1.3 billion in long liquidations near $61,900 versus nearly $870 million in short liquidations near $64,800, and said the failure to fall into that area indicates a “stabilizing force absorbing volatility.” He said that with “smart money” neutral, Bitcoin is in a “scale-based redistribution phase.”

Catalysts could be weeks away, said Steven Wundke, director of strategy and revenue at Algoz Technologies. He pointed to the United States The law of clarity The vote is scheduled to take place on July 4, warning that any error could push the market structure bill into the fourth quarter and lead to inflation in the United States, which is expected to subside only two to three months after the truce with Iran takes effect. Demand for ETFs has flipped from more than $20 billion in inflows in 2025 to $3.2 billion in outflows in 2026, by his count, with bitcoin down about 26% over the year and a basket of major currencies down nearly 50%. “This may be the bottom, but we will probably be bouncing on it for a while yet,” Fundke said.

Below the price, some holders are digging in instead of heading for the exits. Over the past 90 days, bitcoin has been the top swap destination on ChainFlip, with a volume of $239 million, and holders are increasingly borrowing against their coins rather than selling them, said Peter Smedas, the protocol’s marketing lead. A recurring theme among bitcoin holders at a recent bitcoin conference in Prague was that “they want liquidity for their bitcoin, not an exit,” he said.

A near-term test loomed on Friday, when Wundke reported $10.9 billion worth of bitcoin options had expired, potentially shaking a market still searching for direction. In the prediction market Countlessowned by DecryptionParent company Dastan, traders have skewed bearish on Bitcoin’s prospects, now setting up the chance for a decline. It drops to $55,000 By 70%, an increase of 5% from the previous week.