Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has traded between $62,000 and $72,000. Despite not meeting bullish conditions, the leading digital assets managed to maintain their ground.
Analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex open In the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, the current cryptocurrency market environment is being reshaped by changing Federal Reserve expectations and inflation risks. These factors have created near-term pressures on risk assets such as gold and Bitcoin; Regardless, the latter’s ground remained intact.
Bitcoin is in limbo
On-chain data shows that neither the bulls nor the bears are firmly in control. With BTC trading within the consolidation zone between $62,500 and $72,000, the market appears to be in a state of limbo, rather than a sustained bearish phase.
Bitfinex analysts identified two bullish tests of a potential uptrend on lower time frames, but they all failed. The tests were a continuing demonstration of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market and a cooling of the derivatives pool, with funding shifting from neutral to negative.
In the face of this failure, there are now two opposing forces influencing market sentiment on inflation: the potential for energy risk easing following the US-Iran peace agreement, and the potential for energy risk easing from the Fed. to focus On the inflationary heat rather than immediate relief in crude oil prices.
For BTC to continue to maintain its lower bound, the Fed must be willing to “hold its nerve,” according to experts. It remains to be seen how the market will move until that happens.
Fragile bullish conditions
Analysts further explained that ETFs are currently the main evidence of market indecision. These products have to fail To establish an uptrend and instead return to net recoveries. Total trading volume across ETFs has declined significantly, but is still not low enough to support a bearish case. So they are also in limbo, not a bear market.
However, a structural perspective suggests that Bitcoin is trading below an active investor’s cost basis. The $68,500-$72,000 area remains the key overall supply range, and analysts expect further pressure within the $62,000-$64,000 range, or broader moves between $60,000 and $70,000 in the coming days.
As the market surrenders to either bulls or bears, the $68,500-$72,000 range is expected to act as major resistance, as many investors in this range are at a loss and will likely sell at breakeven. Therefore, BTC now has three main levels: a foundational minimum of $54,000, a break-even point of $72,000 for new buyers, and a hurdle of $77,200 for short-term holders.
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