View analyst Xeneta
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Zeneta:
“Five weeks after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, spot prices on every major east-west trade lane have risen sharply, demonstrating that this is a conflict with global ramifications for oceanic supply chains.
“From the Far East to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean – trades most directly exposed to Middle East turmoil – spot rates are up 31% and 30% since the end of February.
“No shipping company is insulated from financial or operational risks. The Far East to West Coast region of the United States – a trade that crosses the Pacific Ocean thousands of miles from the epicenter of the conflict – has seen spot rates rise 29% since the end of February.
“The complex interconnectedness of global supply chains means that port congestion in the Middle East has spilled over into key Asian shipping hubs – including Singapore, Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas – which are also vital to feeding goods towards the US.
“The carriers’ position is unequivocal – the cost of uncertainty falls on the shipper, even in deals with no direct exposure to the Middle East. Market memory is a powerful force and shippers that saw the second wave of the Red Sea crisis in 2024, when port congestion in Singapore doubled already high rates, are not waiting and securing capacity at today’s rates.”
“Shippers’ ability to book today pays a premium for certainty, but it’s a calculated risk against peak season deficits three months from now and paying higher rates. Shippers waiting for conditions to stabilize are making a bet without any clear evidence behind it.”
“Bunk fuel in Singapore – the world’s leading bunkering hub – remains available, with prices nearly double pre-crisis levels, but is slowly trending down after an initial rise of around 200%. Rotterdam prices continue to rise, and ship-to-ship transfers of fuel in the Far East are increasing cost and complexity.”
“However, with no clear end to the crisis, airlines are almost certain to put in place another set of contingency plans. The coming weeks will show whether slow steaming and alternative routes can sustain the route, or whether empty sailings will become the next lever carriers reach.”
Data highlights
Average market spot prices – April 1, 2026
- Far East to US West Coast: USD 2,430 per FEU (40′ container)
- Far East to US East Coast: $3,382 per FEU
- Far East to Northern Europe: $2,904 per FEU
- Far East to Mediterranean: US$4,333 per FEU
- Northern Europe to US East Coast: $1,775 per FEU
Capacity offered (4-week rolling average) – as of March 30, 2026
- Far East to US West Coast: +12.1% from last week
- Far East to US East Coast: +2.9% from last week
- Far East to Northern Europe: +12.5% from last week
- Far East to the Mediterranean: +6.5% from last week
- Northern Europe to the East Coast of the United States: +3.4% from last week
Source: Zenita
