The USD/JPY pair rose last week but failed to break the key resistance level of 161.94. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, a strong break of support at 160.58 would confirm a short-term top, in case of a bearish divergence in the 4-hour MACD. We should then see a deeper decline at the 55 D EMA (now at 159.63) and below. However, a decisive break of the 161.94 high would resume the larger uptrend to the 100% forecast from 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 163.47 thereafter.
In the bigger picture, for now, the corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) remains completed at 139.87. A rally from there is seen as a resumption of the long-term uptrend. This will remain the preferred case as long as the 55 W moving average remains (now at 155.17).
In the longer term picture, the uptrend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and may be ready to resume. A strong break at 161.94 would target a 61.8% forecast of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. The long-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the support at 139.87 holds, even in the event of a deep pullback.
