The global bunker fuel market continues to show pronounced volatility amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which is disrupting global supply chains and contributing to widespread bunker fuel shortages in all major hubs. Over the past week, vault indices have maintained an upward trajectory, with signs of stabilization near recent highs. The 380 HSFO index rose $9.55, rising from $780.96/mt to $790.51/mt. VLSFO rose US$15.64, up to US$949.88/mt from US$934.24/mt the previous week. Meanwhile, the MGO LS index recorded the most significant growth, rising by US$28.21 from US$1,581.58/mt to US$1,609.79/mt. Notably, this is the first time the MGO LS index has crossed the US$1,600.00 threshold, marking a new all-time high for the entire MABUX data series since 2001. At the time of writing, the global bunker fuel market continues to be characterized by sharp, multi-directional price fluctuations, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and heightened geopolitical risks.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – widened by $6.09, rising from $153.28 last week to $159.37. The spread is still well above the psychological break-even threshold of $100.00. However, the index’s weekly average fell by $5.27, indicating fundamental instability despite the headline increase. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread remained unchanged at US$50.00, while its weekly average fell by US$2.83. In Singapore, the spread widened by US$7.00, rising from US$155.00 to US$162.00, and briefly rising to US$193.00 during the week. However, the port’s weekly average dropped significantly by $31.17. High volatility in the fuel market continues to hinder the formation of a stable trend in the SS Spread, leading to an increasingly distorted performance of the index. Given the current market conditions, the prevailing SS Spread dynamics are expected to continue over the next week. More details are available in the ‘Differences’ section mabox.com.
The ECA Istanbul (ES) index closed the week unchanged at US$100.00, although it rose to a peak of US$200.00 amid heightened market volatility. The weekly average also remained generally stable. The ECA spread in Venice is still suspended due to the lack of fixed prices in the market. Amid the ongoing escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the ECA spread is expected to retain further upside potential in the near term. Additional details are available in the “Differences” section of mabox.com.
According to Standard Chartered Bank, European gas prices are expected to maintain a steady upward trajectory amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. TTF benchmark prices could exceed €80/MWh – levels last observed in 2022 – if the US-Iran conflict remains unresolved by the start of the summer injection season. Furthermore, strength along the forward curve, extending toward 2028, suggests that the market is pricing in an extended period of higher gas prices. This suggests that Europe may face continued price pressures over the coming months, reflecting supply-side risks and rising geopolitical tensions.
As of March 31, underground gas storage levels in Europe continued their downward trajectory, falling to 28.05% of total capacity. This represents an additional decline of 1.24 percentage points on a weekly basis. Overall, storage levels are now 33.41% lower than those recorded on 1 January 2026 (61.46%), confirming the significant seasonal decline. The relatively harsh winter across continental Europe contributed to a larger-than-expected increase in heating demand, accelerating the exhaustion of inventories built up over the previous year. In parallel, unfavorable seasonal gas price differentials during most of early 2026 reduced the economic incentive for injections, leading market participants to delay stock replenishment. Against this background, the European TTF fell moderately at the end of week 14, falling by EUR 6.98/MWh to EUR 49.70/MWh, compared to EUR 56.68/MWh in the previous week. Despite the correction, prices remained near the EUR 50.00/MWh level, indicating underlying market resilience amid tightening storage conditions.
The price of LNG as a bunker at the port of Sense (Portugal) fell sharply by US$152 this week, falling to US$1,312 per metric ton from US$1,464 per metric ton the previous week. Meanwhile, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuels shifted in LNG’s favor, widening to US$195, compared to a US$21 advantage for conventional fuel the previous week. As of March 30, MGO LS prices were set at US$1,507/mt at Port Sense. More detailed information is available in the “LNG Bunkering” section of the website mabox.com.
Amid the ongoing escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) – which reflects the ratio between market fuel prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Fuel Index (DBP) – showed mixed dynamics throughout the week, with no noticeable consistent trend across the major global hubs of Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah and Houston:
• 380 HSFO slides: Rotterdam and Singapore moved into undervalued territory, with MDI levels increasing by 57 and 114 points, respectively. Conversely, Fujairah and Houston remained in the overvalued zone, although revaluation premiums shrank by 144 and 18 points. Notably, MDIs in Rotterdam approached full parity between MBP and DBP.
• VLSFO sector: Rotterdam and Singapore also entered undervalued territory, with discounts widening by 62 and 147 points, respectively, by the end of the week. In contrast, Fujairah and Houston continued to reflect overvaluation: average premiums fell sharply by 219 points in Fujairah, while Houston recorded a marginal increase of 8 points.
• MGO LS Sector: Rotterdam is back in overvalued territory, resulting in all four axes being rated as overvalued. Average revaluation premiums rose by 43 points in Rotterdam and 26 points in Houston, while they fell by 30 points in Singapore and 54 points in Fujairah.
The pronounced fluctuations in MDI and variation in valuation trends across regions are primarily driven by sharp price fluctuations amid continued supply tightness in global fuel markets. Given the current conditions, the index is expected to remain highly unstable, with multi-directional moves likely to continue into next week.
The European NGO Transport and Environment (T&E) estimates that the escalation of conflict in the Middle East has increased the shipping industry’s fuel expenses by around €340 million per day, significantly impacting cost structures. Between 1 and 20 March alone, cumulative additional fuel costs are estimated at €4.6 billion, driven by the sharp rise in marine fuel prices. As a result, the cost differential between conventional fossil fuels and e-fuels has narrowed significantly, with almost parity being reached in some ports (around +5%). According to T&E, although this convergence may be temporary, it highlights a critical structural factor: the inherent volatility of fossil fuel markets materially offsets the long-term cost disadvantages associated with cleaner alternatives. T&E believes that the current geopolitical crisis should serve as a catalyst for an acceleration of investment in European e-fuels, alongside wider adoption of energy efficiency measures aimed at reducing exposure to fossil fuel price shocks. In this context, the organization emphasizes the importance of operational and technological solutions – including wind-assisted propulsion, slow steaming and electricity – as effective tools to mitigate the risks of price volatility and enhance long-term resilience within the shipping sector.
The continuing escalation of the conflict in the Middle East continues to generate significant constraints on global bunker fuel supplies, effectively preventing the formation of a stable market trend. Under these circumstances, the fundamental drivers supporting fuel prices are expected to remain strong in the near term. However, price indices are likely to show pronounced volatility, with multi-directional fluctuations driven by rapid and unexpected shifts in the geopolitical landscape.
Source: Written by Sergey Ivanov, Director of MABUX
