Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen. 3.4% During the past 24 hours, with $104.38 million In liquidation. Of these, $91.66 million The positions were long and had to be closed as BTC fell deeper 60 thousand dollars.
In a post on X, influencer CryptoRover shared a piece of technical analysis. The price chart shows the descending triangle pattern made by Bitcoin 2021-2022The Relative Strength Index also formed a similar structure.
The same pattern was repeated 2025-2026. It is possible that, as happened last time, the market bottom will need some time to form before it breaks the triangle pattern.
If the previous cycle repeats itself, an upward shift could begin Fourth quarter 2026. We must remember that, as is the case now, Accumulation of whales It was underway but not fast enough to justify a market turnaround.
Will it be that simple for Bitcoin investors?
Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that Bitcoin Long lasting holder MVRV compressed to 1.24. The measure is the ratio of the coins’ market value to their long-term holders, compared to their average purchase price.
Current reading of 1.24 It is the lowest level in three years and shows that the market is approaching historic lows. The MVRV must fall into the green “very low” surrender zone to give confirmation of the bottom.
In addition, the long-term average cost basis to the holder is 48.4 thousand dollars. A price drop below this level would put this group underwater, on average, and signal capitulation from even the most die-hard coin holders.
Bitcoin is on track with a 4-year cycle
Into The CryptoVerse founder and CEO Benjamin Cohen used a tool 200 week moving average To highlight that 4 years The course was on track.
June of 2022 and 2026 saw this moving average break lower, resulting in notable similarity across cycles.
A high buy/sell ratio indicates that more traders were long in the derivatives market than were short. “This excessive long exposure is one of the main reasons behind the recent sell-off,” Alphractal CEO Joao Widson wrote.
The implication was that, like the long wave of liquidation in the first week of June, another long crisis might begin in the coming days and weeks.
Final summary
- Bitcoin price action has breached the 200-week moving average and could decline further in the coming months.
- The market was approaching a historic bottom, compared to previous sessions, but it had not reached that point yet.
