The EUR/USD pair remained consolidating above 1.1323 last week and the outlook was unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week. With support at 1.1499 turning into healthy resistance, further decline is expected. On the downside, a break of 1.1323 will resume the decline from 1.2081 to 100% prediction from 1.2081 to 1.1408 from 1.1848 at 1.1175. However, a decisive break of 1.1499 level will return the bias to the upside of the 55 D EMA (now at 1.1559) and above.
In the bigger picture, focus is back on the 38.2% retracement level from 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. A decisive breakout there would revive the medium-term bearish trend reversal case after the rejection of the 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Further decline we should see to 61.8% retracement levels at 1.0904. However, a strong bounce from 1.1353, followed by a break of resistance at 1.1621, will sustain the upside in the medium term.
In the long-term picture, the 38.2% retracement from 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to the psychological level of 1.2000 is key to the outlook. Rejection at this level would keep the multi-decade downtrend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep the outlook neutral at best. However, a decisive break of 1.2000/19 would signal a reversal of the long-term upside trend, targeting the 61.8% retracement levels at 1.3554.
