USD/JPY’s sharp decline last week confirms the short-term top at 162.83. Initial bias remains moderately to the downside this week for the 38.2% retracement from 155.01 to 162.83 at 159.84. Since this level is close to the 55 D EMA (now at 160.00), strong support should be seen from there for a bounce to occur. On the upside, minor resistance above 161.63 will shift the intraday bias to neutral. Overall, consolidation below 162.83 should continue for some time.
In the bigger picture, the rise from 139.87 (2025 low) is another upside point in the long-term uptrend. The next target is a 61.8% forecast of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. For now, the outlook will remain bullish as long as support at 155.01 holds, even in the event of a deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, the uptrend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and may be ready to resume. A strong break at 161.94 would target a 61.8% forecast of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. The long-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the support at 139.87 holds, even in the event of a deep pullback.
