USD/JPY extended the consolidation pattern from 162.83 level with another downward wave last week. Overall expectations are unchanged and initial bias remains neutral at first. While a deeper decline cannot be ruled out, the downside should be contained by a 38.2% retracement from 155.01 to 162.83 at 159.84. On the upside, minor resistance above 161.63 will shift the intraday bias to neutral. Overall, consolidation below 162.83 should continue for some time.
In the bigger picture, the rise from 139.87 (2025 low) is another upside point in the long-term uptrend. The next target is a 61.8% forecast of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. For now, the outlook will remain bullish as long as support at 155.01 holds, even in the event of a deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, the uptrend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and may be ready to resume. A strong break at 161.94 would target a 61.8% forecast of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. The long-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the support at 139.87 holds, even in the event of a deep pullback.
