Peter Schiff says the next big market crash will start in the bond market, not Bitcoin (BTC). The long-time gold proponent argues that rising US Treasury yields, not cryptocurrency volatility, pose the real threat to global markets.
In his latest podcast, Schiff warned that a collapse in Treasuries could impact stocks, housing, and cryptocurrencies. He expects investors will eventually flee to gold as risky assets come together.
Why does Schiff say that a market crash starts with bonds?
The warning focuses on the bond market, which Schiff says has already begun to collapse. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is close to 4.5%, while the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds has risen about 5%, according to the Treasury Department. numbers. Both are expected to trend sharply higher.
Higher yields raise borrowing costs everywhere. Schiff argues that this would pressure stocks, deepen the housing affordability problem, and slow growth. The average 30-year mortgage is 6.49%, according to Freddie Mac Weekly. reconnaissanceThis is a level that keeps many buyers away.
He says a deeper recession in the housing market would force the Fed to intervene. This means more money printing and higher inflation.
In his opinion, both results are in favor of precious metals. Gold is now trading above $4,100 an ounce, after recovering It dropped to less than $4,000 In June.
Why is he saying Bitcoin won’t be saved?
Bitcoin has held up better than many of Schiff’s critics expected. Token It trades near $64,200With a market value of about $1.29 trillion. However, it is approximately 49% below the record high of $126,080 set in October 2025.
Schiff says this withdrawal actually shows that Bitcoin is not acting as a safe haven. The price of gold is expected to fall further when stocks decline, rather than remaining flat like gold.
“Although I think when tech stocks go down, Bitcoin will be correlated. But it won’t go up when tech stocks go up. But when tech stocks go down, it’s going to go down a lot more.” He said In the podcast.
It also questions the general optimism on Wall Street. Major banks still maintain bullish targets for Bitcoin, despite the strategy’s poor performance Preferred stock Investors should be particularly skeptical of these calls, he suggests.
The tension runs deeper in MicroStrategy itself. Michael Saylor’s company is the largest corporate holder, owning more than 840,000 Bitcoin.
I have I started selling Bitcoin To finance dividends on those securities. Schiff has long warned that the model will bend, including in a controversial call A sharper decline To $20,000.
“I think the precious metals market is getting ready for a big move up and the stock market is getting ready for a big move down,” he said.
Whether the bond market will crack the way he expects remains far from certain. Many analysts still expect yields to decline if inflation declines.
But in the meantime, his thesis gives investors a clear signal to watch. The next few weeks of Treasury action may be a test of this.
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