From its peak of $96K in January 2026 to $62.7K at press time, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen throughout the entire first half of 2026. Although there were brief spikes in value, they were short-lived.
Bitcoin ETFs Revive Bullish Momentum
However, the tension can subside now. This is because exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recently announced figures of $281.8 million. This marks their first weekly influx since the second week of May.
According to Previous AMBCrypto report$197.4 million flowed to Bitcoin Funds, $84.4 million flowed to Ethereum (ETH). these The inflows also ended an eight-week streak of outflows that drained more than $7 billion from cryptocurrency ETFs.
Unfortunately, even after zooming out, the image remains rather realistic. This, because Inflows decreased for 12 months to about $1 billion, from a peak of $12 billion in October 2025 and $10 billion in late April.
However, buyers may be starting to return now after a stressful couple of months. Although no one is ready to call a bottom, it appears that the first two weeks of July were the time when flows stopped falling.
Geopolitical factors that colored the first half of 2026
First of all, the conflict in the Middle East was the main reason behind Bitcoin’s downward momentum. However, in the second half of 2026, things seem to have stabilized. Although oil jumped more than 5% towards the $75 resistance level, The price of Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient.
In fact, resilience persisted even after President Donald Trump withdrew from the ceasefire with Iran, igniting macro-level uncertainty.
How do Fed rates, DATs, and loopholes work too?
In addition, the central bank maintained interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% Until mid-2026, suggesting it is in no hurry to cut interest rates as inflation remains above its target.
Another factor that hurt the cryptocurrency market in the first half of 2026 is Blockchain security incidents on the risewhich rose by about 50% year over year to 182. However, total losses fell by about 60% to about $956 million, compared to $2.37 billion in the previous year.
However, with Strategy for selling 3,588 Bitcoinor approximately $216 million, to pay preferred stock dividends. A decline in BTC holdings sparked the situation in July.
This alone points to the fact that investors may be waiting for more convincing evidence that inflation is falling.
However, with the total distributed market capitalization of RWA exceeding $33 billion, representing 200% year-over-year growth and a nearly 20-fold increase since January 2024, hope remains.
This is because the growth of RWAs has been highlighted in H1 2026 report from Birdeye Research It significantly outpaced the growth of stablecoins by 2.4 times over the same time period.
What lies ahead?
Therefore, it is best to conclude that A The bottom is not confirmed None of this.
As expected, the $7 billion outflow trend cannot be reversed by one strong week of inflows. This sentiment was well reflected in the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, which was still in the “extreme fear zone” at the time of publication.
Final summary
- The second half of 2026 has brought new optimism to the market, but concerns remain.
- Although Bitcoin ETFs have turned sentiment bearish, security breaches, price movements, etc. are putting pressure on the market as a whole.
