Why aren’t analysts worried about Coinbase’s 30% drop?

The numbers got worse. Stocks rose.

Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) both rose roughly 3-4% on Wednesday after William Blair — a Chicago-based investment bank founded in 1935 that most stock investors know from technology and growth coverage —I issued a memo Cuts revenue and profit forecasts for Coinbase while maintaining an “outperform” rating.

Reading in TLDR terms is that the pain is already in the price. “We believe investors should continue to participate in Coinbase.” He said.

The company cut Coinbase’s 2026 revenue estimates by 12% and 2027 estimates by 13%, and destroyed its adjusted EBITDA forecast by 34% in both years. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adeeb Choudhury said earnings are set to bottom in the second half of 2026 before recovering in 2027, and that investors should stay the course as spot cryptocurrency volume bottoms out alongside Bitcoin.

William Blair expects Coinbase’s total trading volume to fall nearly 44% this year to $669 billion before rebounding by more than 32% in 2027.

The company sees this cycle as structurally different from 2022: Bitcoin ETFs now exist, institutional flows have grown, and the regulatory environment has matured in ways that did not exist four years ago.

The company also highlighted Coinbase’s Layer 2 network as a potential key earnings driver, with retail derivatives and prediction markets rounding out a revenue base that extends beyond spot trading —Retail derivatives alone exceed $200 million annually In the first quarter.

Not everyone was constructive in the short term. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley lowered his price target to $155 from $170, while maintaining a “neutral” rating. He pointed to prediction markets and perpetual futures as the defining story of the second quarter — with the World Cup leading to massive growth in prediction market activity — and warned of “heavy investor interest in the perpetual futures threat” ahead of the third quarter.

The value of Coinbase has fallen approximately 30% this year, along with a roughly 26% decline in Bitcoin. The circle that appeared for the first time In its initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025 At $31 per share, it’s down about 20% since January.

The ‘W’ Pattern: Why John Bollinger Says Bitcoin Is Ready to Explode

The same directional reading is also appearing among technical analysts. John Bollinger — the veteran technical analyst who created Bollinger Bands, volatility envelopes drawn above and below the moving average used by traders around the world to detect pressure and potential breakouts — has been pointing to a developing pattern on Bitcoin’s daily chart since early July.

On July 2, Bollinger posted his analysis on X, identifying a double bottom “W” formation. The double bottom is a reversal formation defined by two swing bottoms with a bounce in between; It turns into an uptrend once the price clears the resistance at the high between the lows.

The setup has been called “fully fractal” – smaller versions of the same shape overlap within the larger structure, and the pattern is also visible on the weekly chart. He was frank about the uncertainty: previous bullish setups have been negated by selling pressures throughout this cycle.

In a Latest postBollinger stated that if the “W” was completed, he would see this as “confirmation of a trend change.” This is his clearest public sign yet that the trend may be turning rather than pausing.

Bollinger revealed a long position in Bitcoin through his investment vehicles earlier this year, so his analysis and book point in the same direction. In terms of technical analysis, Bitcoin price is still bearish, but so is the trend Loss of strength.

Has Bitcoin bottomed?

according to Glassnode’s latest weekly analysislong-term holder capitulation – the main source of selling pressure all year – reached its cycle peak two weeks ago and then retreated. The measure that measures what long-term bondholders actually give up each day, adjusted to exclude internal transfers, has peaked and is now falling for the first time this cycle.

Buyers emerged at the June lows. Glassnode documented a massive wave of accumulation across wallets of all sizes during that period. The inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar has deepened, while its correlation with US stocks has eased, and its sensitivity to good macro news has returned: Tuesday’s soft inflation reading moved Bitcoin more sharply than any major stock index.

The sticking point is the same for analysts both on the chain and on Wall Street, where no sustained spot price-driven buying has confirmed the recovery yet.

Derivatives positions are beginning to decline, long sellers are thinning out, and the fear premium in the options market is beginning to decline. But the capital did not fully arrive. William Blair places the turning point in 2027, predicting a 32% rebound in Coinbase trading volume after an expected 44% decline this year.