With bullish catalysts fading, has Trump’s third-quarter downtrend just begun?
When zoomed in, the setting appears less clear. The official Trump coin held a tight consolidation range around the $1.5 level, with nearly two weeks of steady upward trend, suggesting that a potential accumulation zone could be forming as bulls continue to buy the dip.
Trump’s rising open interest (OI) adds another upside angle. As the chart below shows, open interest has risen back toward early July levels, approaching the $100 million mark.
Interestingly, nearly $10 million worth of OI was added this week alone, which is consistent with the narrow token consolidation range.
Technically, a high OI when the price is being squeezed often indicates that traders are positioning for a big move.
However, when you zoom out, the wider setting starts to appear weaker. Trump stock is currently down more than 5.3% in the third quarter, which may seem simple at first glance.
But compared to Bitcoin’s nearly 10% decline over the same period and Trump’s losing streak of six straight quarterly losses, the risk of another collapse in the third quarter cannot be ignored.
This is especially noticeable as one of Official Trump (Trump) Major bullish catalysts are starting to lose momentum. So, with sentiment shifting, is the current 5% decline just the beginning of a bigger collapse in Q3?
Trump’s breakthrough hopes meet fading catalysts
Trump’s technical weakness has become a bearish chart.
Looking at the memecoin sector, the overall setup looks weak, with the overall market capitalization declining by more than 15% in the past 30 days. This shows that despite wider aggregate FUD, investors’ appetite for speculative assets is still declining.
However, some names are still bucking the trend and attracting new capital.
takes pepper (pepper)for example, which gained more than 20% in the third quarter, showing that selective demand still exists even as the broader memcoin market suffers. Unfortunately for Trump, he has not yet joined that group of outperformers.
Adding to the pressure, Polymarket’s latest odds show that the chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law by the end of 2026 have fallen to a record low of 32%, weakening the key bullish catalyst.
Against this backdrop, Trump’s quarterly weakness looks like a broader trend problem.
With the widest The memcoin sector As he struggled, and the momentum around the Clarity Act faded, and speculative demand became more selective, Trump failed to attract consistent capital inflows.
This makes the recent bounce look more like a short-term rotation rather than a confirmed reversal, putting the bullish OI under the microscope.
If this setup holds and Trump breaks below the $1.5 support level, the recent rebound could serve as a bull trap, increasing the risk of a deeper collapse in the third quarter.
Final summary
- Trump is holding near $1.50, with rising open interest suggesting traders are preparing for a bigger move.
- With memecoin demand flagging and CLARITY Act hopes fading, Trump’s latest bounce could turn into a bullish trap.
