The price of Bitcoin fell below $64,000, as renewed tensions between the United States and Iran, volatile oil prices, and a sell-off in the technology sector linked to the launch of Kimi K3 in China, kept investors away from risk assets.
summary
- Bitcoin price fell below $64,000 as tensions in the Middle East and Kimi K3 rocked risk markets.
- BTC must recover $65,047 to confirm a sustainable recovery towards $67,000.
- A break below $62,708 could expose the $60,000 support level and lead to further liquidation.
According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (Bitcoin) The price fell about 2% to $63,785 on Monday before recovering toward $64,000, and is still down about 1% over the past 24 hours. Fear and greed in cryptocurrencies index It remained in the “fear” zone at 29, while Ethereum, Ripple, BNB and Dogecoin also recorded slight daily losses.
The dangers of the Middle East intensified after the bomb Set a ship on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing its crew to abandon ship before they were rescued by a tugboat. US strikes also killed one person in Tabriz, while Tehran condemned the attacks on the unfinished Darkhovin nuclear facility.
US Central Command separately reported that a US service member died during the controlled detonation of an unexploded Iranian drone in northern Iraq.
The attacks initially sent crude oil prices higher as traders assessed the threat to production and shipping in the Middle East. Brent crude briefly exceeded $85 a barrel before falling toward $82 after the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that international mediators had submitted proposals to reduce tensions.
Tehran also left the door open to negotiations with Washington if the talks serve Iranian national interests. Diplomatic openness has reduced immediate concerns about supplies, although attacks on Iranian ships, cities and nuclear infrastructure have kept the risk of another rise in oil prices alive.
Technology stocks added another source of pressure after Beijing-based Moonshot AI released Kimi K3, a 2.8 trillion-parameter model designed for programming and agent-based tasks. Moonshot’s internal tests put the Kimi K3 ahead of many Western competitors in front-end encoding, although these performance claims await independent confirmation when model weights become available.
Launch Intensifying fears That cheaper Chinese models could disrupt American AI companies and semiconductor suppliers. Bitcoin has traded closely with highly technical stock indices during recent risk-off sessions, leaving the cryptocurrency exposed as investors reduce their positions across speculative markets.
US equity funds recorded withdrawals worth $4.8 billion during the week ending July 15, according to LSEG Lipper data cited by Reuters. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 8.48% during the same period, while growth funds suffered net redemptions of $7.18 billion.
Bitcoin price must recover $65,000 to confirm a sustainable recovery
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows repeated failure around $65,047, a former support-turned-resistance level. Buyers have tested the barrier several times since early July, but each attempt ended without a daily close above it.
A decisive close above $65,047 would restore the recovery structure and expose the June swing high near $67,000. Until then, Bitcoin remains within the roughly $60,000-$65,000 range that dominated price action for most of July.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin fell below its 20-period simple moving average at $64,206, but remains close to its 50-period average at $64,024. The 100-period simple moving average at $63,642 offers the next support, followed by the 200-period simple moving average near $62,708.
The relative strength on the 4-hour frame fell to 46.56, below its moving average of 54.60. The reading shows that sellers have regained control of short-term momentum, although Bitcoin has not yet entered the oversold zone.
Daily momentum presents a mixed picture. The MACD histogram dropped below zero to -16.55 as the MACD lines and signal lines converged, increasing the risk of a bearish crossover. However, the Chaikin Money Flow reading remains positive at 0.13, indicating that capital is not leaving the market at the same pace as prices are falling.
According to For Trader Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin is still trying to close above its 200-period weekly EMA, but a stronger advance is needed to challenge the 200-period weekly EMA.
“Until then, we’re stuck in this volatile $60,000 price range.”
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Provide Limited Relief After More than Eight Weeks of Extensive Drawdowns, SoSoValue Data He appears. US-listed funds recorded net inflows for the second straight week, while BlackRock’s IBIT helped drive $132 million in inflows on Friday despite a $4.2 million withdrawal from Fidelity’s fund. The improvement remains too small to lead to strong institutional accumulation.
The three-day liquidation heat map places the largest concentration of overall liquidity at around $65,200 to $65,500. A move into this range could close leveraged short positions and help BTC challenge daily resistance near $65,047.
Underneath the market, liquidation pools lie between $63,300 and $63,600, with another focus around $62,500 to $62,800. The price often moves towards areas of heavy leverage, making either group a potential target if volatility expands.
A loss of $62,700 would expose Bitcoin to another capitulation phase
Bitcoin recovery theory may weaken if sellers impose a 4-hour close below the 100-period simple moving average at $63,642. A subsequent break below the 200-period SMA at $62,708 would expose $60,000, followed by the late June low near $58,000.
Analyst Ardi cautioned that the current bear market pullback has not resulted in the extreme capitulation seen before the previous cycle’s bottoms. In his view, either months of range trading should exhaust sellers or a deeper liquidation event should remove remaining leverage.
Oil remains the main external risk. Failure of negotiations between the United States and Iran or renewed threats to regional energy routes could cause crude oil prices to rise again, revive fears of inflation, and strengthen the Federal Reserve’s higher policy stance for a longer period.
For the bulls, a daily close above $65,047 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup and open the way towards $67,000. Without this breakout, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to another sweep of leveraged positions below $63,600.
Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials contained on this page are for educational purposes only.
