The debate over when the Bitcoin bear market will end is largely divided between two points of view. One camp still clings to the traditional four-year cycle, while the other camp believes the bottom may have already been reached.
Grayscale, for example, prefers the latter.
Macro on market cycles
Proponents of the four-year cycle theory see Bitcoin halving events as the main driver of price movements and expect the current downturn to follow the same pattern as previous bear markets. Historically, cryptoassets bottom out about one year after a cyclical peak and about two and a half years after a halving event, with cumulative declines averaging around 80%.
Based on this framework, Bitcoin price may continue to decline further and bottom in September or October. However, Grayscale said it supports an alternative view that BTC has matured as an asset and is now increasingly driven by broader macroeconomic forces, similar to other major asset classes.
Company male Previous bear markets have coincided with periods of slower economic growth and higher real interest rates, he added, adding that this year’s deflation has unfolded alongside changing expectations about US Federal Reserve policy and rising real interest rates.
Under this macro-driven framework, Grayscale said the asset price could bottom when those broader economic conditions start to improve. The company added that if the Fed refrains from further rate hikes and economic growth remains resilient, the BTC price may have already bottomed, making further declines unnecessary despite expectations under the four-year cycle model.
Grayscale is not the only one arguing that the cryptocurrency could be approaching a turning point.
More analysts are returning to the early bottom thesis
Cryptocurrency trader Killa too He said The Bitcoin market structure suggests that the bottom may already be in place, although it is still at “50/50” due to the timing of the cycle. The trader explained that BTC has now “swept out the low dead cat base” and completed the same five-wave corrective structure seen in previous bear markets. However, previous bear markets took approximately 365 days to bottom, while the current cycle would have bottomed in about 260 days.
However, Kela said the “mistake is to assume” that cycle lengths never change, and he believes Bitcoin is more likely to make higher lows than make significant new lows.
Earlier this week, cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez said He said The monthly chart displays the same set of technical signals seen near the end of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022. While Martinez acknowledged that on-chain metrics like MVRV and CVDD still leave room for a decline toward the $40,000-$50,000 range, he noted that the current technical setup has historically identified a dominant accumulation zone with a favorable risk-reward profile for spot BTC buyers.
A similar argument was made by cryptocurrency analyst Dr. Proffitt, who… to caution Investors who wait for the bottom of a traditional four-year cycle in September or October may end up missing the market’s next move. While Bitcoin could still revisit the $54,000 area, the analyst said he does not expect a drop below $50,000 and believes the gradual buildup already offers an attractive risk-reward profile.
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