Ethereum (ETH) has been cheap since February, trading below its total cost basis of $2.3K. More holders were at a loss, and the recent rise to $1,920 and subsequent re-fall meant sellers still had the upper hand in the market.
AMBCrypto reported that the achieved price ranges mean that a price drop to $1.15K is possible if the 2022 bear market cycle continues again.
Although it can be considered cheapSpot ETF inflows of $70.7 million on Friday, July 24, broke a five-trading-day streak that began on July 16. Stalled momentum may be a warning of a continuing downtrend, AMBCrypto has warned.
Some on-chain metrics pointed to organic growth and reduced speculative churn.
These signals indicate low downside risks for Ethereum
XWIN Japan notes that exchange reserves have fallen from 5 million ETH in mid-2025 to 3.8 million at the time of writing. This indicates a build-up by bondholders and an easing of selling pressure in the market.
In addition, the market price is lower than the realized price, creating favorable conditions for long-term investors to buy the leading altcoin at a cheap price.
However, XWIN Japan noted that a decline in exchange reserves, in and of itself, does not confirm a final market bottom has been reached.
During the past quarter, Ethereum It was quiet, crypto analyst Crypto Onchain wrote. For example, average transaction fees were 92% lower than the 90-day average. However, over the past week these fees have increased by 16%.
Deployment of new smart contracts increased by 190% compared to a 90-day baseline. Average tip fees also increased by 86%. The increased posting of contracts and tips indicates real short-term demand and activity on the chain.
Leverage remained weak. Funding rates were low on Binance, and open interest dropped from $15.06 billion at the beginning of June to $11.85 billion at press time.
If the short-term spike in activity continues, while leverage is under control, a price rally driven by organic demand may be viable.
Final summary
- Compared to its realized price, Ethereum remains cheap, and declining exchange reserves indicate steady accumulation.
- The rise in smart contract deployment and midstream advice over the past week, coupled with weak leverage, has been something investors can keep an eye on.
